The initiative to expand the average Chinese family was made by a delegate from the southern province of Guangdong, lawyer Zhu Leyu. The lawyer notes that due to the current principles of family planning, the birth rate in China is steadily declining.

“There is a large gap between the expectations and reality of the one-family-two-child policy, since this measure did not contribute to population growth, but, on the contrary, to a decrease in the birth rate in China,” says Zhu Leyu.

Russian experts, speaking about the Chinese one, formulate the problem differently. According to the head of the sector of economics and politics of China at the Institute of World Economics and international relations them. EAT. Primakov RAS Evgeniy Lukonina, the threat is not in a decrease in the birth rate, but in the rapid aging of the population, a change in the social structure.

The expert recalled that last fall, the President of the People's Republic of China outlined a course towards building a “society of average income and great victory socialism with Chinese characteristics in new era" According to the plans of the Chinese authorities, in the next 15 years the country should “increase the base for a middle-income society” so that by the middle of the century the pace of modernization can be accelerated and the republic’s position in the world can be strengthened.

“This cannot be done without a young population. For every young Chinese there will soon be a huge number of old people who need to be supported. The entire pension system is quite standard: young people contribute money to the elderly and so on in a circle,” Lukonin said in an interview with RT.

• Beijing, China
• Reuters
• China Stringer Network

Three years ago, China abolished the one-family-one-child principle. This policy main goal which was to reduce the population and the burden on the economy, has been operating in the country since the 70s of the last century. However, since 2015, not many married couples have decided to have a second child.

However, 2016, according to the Chinese statistics service, turned out to be a record year for births since the beginning of the century: 17.86 million babies were born. But already in 2017, 630 thousand fewer children were born in the republic.

Experts on China associate similar statistics with the national mentality: many families still believe Chinese horoscope and consciously plan the birth of a child for a favorable year. Thus, the year of the Dragon is considered the most suitable: during this period, 2% more babies are born than in all other years.

The Year of the Monkey is no less popular. This is exactly what 2016 turned out to be. The Chinese believe that smart and inventive people are born at this time. The symbol of the most “childless” year of 2015 was a sheep (or goat) - according to Chinese superstitions, in such years you should not have children.

Non-children's time

Chinese demographic experts believe that the problem of the decline in the birth rate cannot be solved by law alone. To guarantee a demographic boom, China must finally abandon its current policy of planning for childbirth. Local analysts believe that China's birth rate will decline sharply over the next ten years, which in turn could slow down economic development China.

However, the Chinese themselves believe that before having a child, parents are obliged to raise the previous two “at a good level,” which requires significant expenses.

“My wife and I don’t even think about a second child. With the modern pace of life, it is more difficult to look after a child and raise him. The world needs a smart, well-mannered and wealthy child, and we correctly calculate our strength to give him everything he needs,” Liang Yu, a 28-year-old employee of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, shared with RT.

• Beijing, China
• Reuters
• Kim Kyung Hoon

As Lukonin emphasizes, the authorities’ permission to have two children did not lead to a sharp increase in the birth rate. The fact is that among the Chinese, who belong to the middle class, the family model is increasingly reminiscent of the European one. Most often, couples limit themselves to two children.

“Permission to have a third child will not greatly affect the birth rate; there must be some, for example, maternity capital. And China has never had any incentive. For example, when you have a second child, you lose free kindergarten, schools, pay additional taxes and so on,” Lukonin noted.

The desire to have a truly large family, despite obvious difficulties, will most likely be observed only in those regions of the country where centuries-old traditions provided for three or more children in one marriage, Chinese experts say.

“Families in Guangdong Province happily accepted the “one family, two children” amendment. It was common for people in this region to have many children until restrictions were introduced in the 1970s. I think they will be happy about the permission to have a third child. As for me, I only have one child, and I don’t want a second one. My wife and I have too little time for this. Most Chinese families living in the city are too busy and are unlikely to want a third child; two children are enough for them,” 42-year-old historian from the PRC Andrei Xiao, who is interning in Russia, told RT.

Chinese youth hold a similar opinion.

“I doubt many people will want to have three children. Everything in China is still very expensive, including good education. Many live in rural areas and, in order to provide a life for themselves and their children, are forced to leave their children with relatives and go to the cities to work. Maybe such people want a big family, but I think that they definitely shouldn’t start one,” Xuanxuan Shi, a 24-year-old student at a Moscow university, shared her opinion with RT.

• Children during a ceremony to mark the end of kindergarten
• Reuters
• China Daily CDIC

According to the All China Women's Federation, it is children living in rural areas who suffer the most as their parents often move to cities where they find work. According to a study by Hong Kong Baptist University, lack of parental attention has a negative impact on children's mental health and the quality of their education. Experts made these conclusions based on observations of 5,000 students. primary classes in Hunan province.

“Our results suggest that lack of attention from both parents, a common situation for children living in rural China, hinders their education. And this problem deserves the attention of politicians,” the study authors concluded.

The fundamental principle of Chinese family law - childbirth planning - was officially enshrined in 1982, but already in 1954-1955, at special meetings of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on fertility and population issues, it was recognized that rapid population growth creates difficulties for states.

The economic crisis that occurred in 1959-1962 led to a decrease in the birth rate without government intervention.

The issue of childbirth planning again became relevant in China in the early 1970s. In 1971, the 1st Chairman of the CPC Central Committee, Mao Zedong, made a report on establishing work in the field of planned childbirth. The first actions of the state were limited to explanatory work with the population with the aim of transforming late marriage and planned fertility into conscious actions of the broad masses in cities and villages. Planned birth departments have been created in all health care institutions. In December 1973, a meeting was held on a report on work in the field of planned childbirth, at which the demand “late, rare, little” was first put forward. “Late” - late marriage, “rarely” - the birth of children with an interval of 4 years, “few” - the birth of a small number of children. Simultaneously with the promotion of this slogan, governing bodies for planned fertility in the local government system were created. The state has allocated the necessary amount of funds to implement the main directions of its policy. Throughout the country, contraceptives were distributed free of charge, and contraceptive operations were performed free of charge. During the implementation of the planned activities, cases of forced sterilization and abortion were noted.

At the same time, the state policy of planned childbearing did not have legislative support. Its implementation was carried out at the level of party directives, administrative instructions and local regulations. However, the desired results were noted; population growth was observed to decline to the levels of developed countries. In 1981, the 4th session of the fifth National People's Congress of China adopted a report “On Population Policy,” which stated that a married couple had only one child. In villages, families with one child could apply for a second child to local authorities; the application had to be accompanied by evidence of difficulties with managing the household. The birth of a third child was prohibited. Despite the strict government policy on birth planning, villages continued to give birth to as many children as were required on the farm.

In September 1982, planned fertility was officially elevated to the rank of basic state policy by the National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and in December 1982 it was enshrined in the Constitution of the People's Republic of China.

On September 1, 2002, the Law “On Population and Planned Birth Rate” was put into effect in the PRC. Article 18 of the law provides for encouraging citizens to marry late and to give birth to one child by one married couple. Until 2002, birth control concerned the bulk of the Chinese population - the Han Chinese, and only with the advent of the Law on Population and Planned Birth Rate did the government oblige it to be controlled among national minorities.

In 2007, Chinese authorities relaxed the country's birth control policies, allowing urban families to have two children, provided that both spouses are the only children of their parents. The new rule was extended to all provinces and autonomous regions of the PRC, with the exception of the most populous province of Henan, where 97 million people live.

The issue of the duration of the “one child” policy has not been resolved by the PRC government. In February 2008, the Chinese authorities officially admitted that they intend to review the “one family, one child” policy in order to overcome the growing disproportion in the age composition of the population. At the same time, specific dates for lifting the ban have not been determined. That same year, parents of children killed or seriously injured in the Sichuan earthquake were allowed to have another child. For this purpose, teams of doctors have been created to restore fertility even to sterilized couples.

November 15, 2013 full text resolution of the third plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, held on November 9-12, which outlined a program for deepening the policy of reforms in the country. In particular, it states that Chinese couples will be able to have two children if one of the spouses is the only child of their parents.

The policy of birth control led, according to experts, to a more balanced development of the most populous country in the world, eased the problem of resource shortages, but led to an aging population. At the end of 2012, in a country with a population of 1.3 billion people, the number of elderly people aged 60 years and older reached 194 million, by 2020 their number will reach 243 million, and by 2050 it may exceed the 300 million mark. However, in large industrial centers a shortage of workers is already beginning to be felt. Experts estimate that by 2030, 20% of Chinese will be over 60 years old, double the current figure. Accordingly, social costs for the maintenance of older citizens will increase, and if the current trend continues, there will be too few people of working age in the country to ensure the payment of pensions and benefits.

Other negative aspects are also noted: the policy of one child per family led to gender disproportion, since having a boy in the family is considered more prestigious, which led to a large number abortions if parents are not satisfied with the sex of the unborn child. The ratio of newborn boys to girls in China is 10% points higher than the normal figure. In addition, every year in China, 5% of children are born with physical and mental disabilities. There are 60 million people with disabilities in the country, and there are currently 840 thousand HIV-infected people registered.

The material was prepared based on information from RIA Novosti and open sources

As you know, at the November plenum of the Chinese Communist Party, a decision was made to soften the law requiring that a family have no more than one child. Since 2014, it comes into force and now if one of the parents was the only child in the family, the couple can have two children.

First, this resolution, as reported by Xinhua, was adopted by the standing committee of the National People's Congress of China. Now his decision must be approved by the Assembly of People's Representatives, but this is just a formality, since this demographic policy was previously tested in several regions of the PRC.

This controversial rule was adopted in China in the 1970s to reduce overpopulation in the country. Then the authorities suggested that the population reconsider their views on starting a family, that is, get married later, have children less often, and it is better to limit yourself to only one. Do not think that families did not have the right to have more than one child. In fact, the law did not apply to national minorities, and there are about 50 of them in the country and their total number is about 85 million people. In general, about 1.349 billion people currently live in China.

They were allowed to have a second child if the first one was disabled. It was also possible to have a second child by paying a hefty fine or by giving birth to twins. Therefore, many couples resorted to artificial insemination in the hope of multiple pregnancies. The authorities have been actively fighting against lawbreakers all these years, and the world's media have repeatedly published terrible stories about sterilization and forced abortions. It is interesting that the law did not include Chinese who had children from marriages with foreigners - give birth as many times as you want, but under one condition - the children must remain in another country.

According to political observers, the Chinese authorities had to relax the law for three reasons. Firstly, he was and remains extremely unpopular among the population, and there are already enough problems in a huge country. Secondly, and this reason is much more important, is the rate of population aging. According to the UN, the growth of the working population in China will continue until 2015, and then the population will begin to rapidly age. Already in 2030, there will be 229 million old people in the country, and 331 million by 2050. By this time, the 4-2-1 phenomenon will begin to operate: meaning that by the time a person reaches working age, he will have to bear the burden of caring for his parents and grandparents on both sides. Thirdly, because of this law, there is a clear shortage of women in the country. After all, a son is the breadwinner and successor of the family, therefore, by any means (including criminal ones) they tried to ensure that the only child was a boy.

Although the Chinese authorities claim that thanks to the policy of one child per family, 400 million “extra” people were not born in China, Western experts are confident that in fact this law has led to the fact that many families who would not have thought about having a child for a long time They rushed to have a child, which led to a serious jump in the birth rate. In addition, they remind us that in almost all countries, as the population’s well-being increases, the birth rate falls, and that the same would have happened in China and now the population remained within the existing framework, but without demographic distortions.

For 2017 it is 1.3 billion people). India is catching up with the Celestial Empire with 1.2 billion citizens, followed by the USA, Indonesia and Brazil.

Why are there so many Chinese? This can be explained by several reasons: favorable geographical location and favorable climate, special mentality, and Mao Zedong’s “Great Leap Forward” policy. As a result of the combined influence of these factors, the population has increased significantly.

But why are there so many Chinese after the “One Family, One Child” policy, which severely limited the birth rate for decades? The current situation is simply not affected by all the results of the introduction of the course, which, by the way, was recently cancelled.

Population size and dynamics

The population of China as of 2017 is 1.3 billion. According to some forecasts, the population will range from 1.4 to 1.6 billion by 2035. Official censuses were carried out in 1953, 1964, 1982 and 1990. After the 1990 census, the authorities decided to conduct each subsequent census 10 years after the previous one.

The most reliable results are considered to be those of 1982, according to which there were just over a billion citizens in China. The 1952 census showed 582 million Chinese, which, of course, was very far from the actual picture.

Since the eighties of the last century, China has experienced a sharp decline in the birth rate; the figures were especially low in the second half of the 1990-2000s. The Chinese birth rate in 1982 was more than 18 people per thousand citizens, in 1990 - 21 people, in 2000 - 14 people, in 2010 - 11 people.

Life expectancy and population density

The average life expectancy of Chinese people as of 2017 is more than 75 years for both sexes. Whereas back in 1960 this figure was 43 years.

Despite the large number of citizens, the average population density of China is far from the highest in the world: the PRC is in 56th place in the overall list with an indicator of 139 people per square kilometer. For comparison: in Monaco the population density is 18.6 thousand inhabitants per km 2, in Singapore - 7.3 thousand per km 2, in the Vatican - 1914 thousand per km 2.

Chinese emigrants in the world

How many Chinese are there in the world? Immigrants from China and their descendants, permanently or temporarily residing in other countries, are called hauqiao. The country's traditions do not reject emigrants from China, as they believe that decisive role It is not citizenship that matters, but origin. In short, if a great-grandfather was born in China, then his great-grandson, who has lived since birth, for example, in Germany and has citizenship of the European Union, will also be considered Chinese.

Hautqiao live mainly in the USA, Canada, Europe and Southeast Asia. How many Chinese are there in the world? According to various experts, there are about 40 million Chinese emigrants worldwide. There are 20-30 million Chinese living in Asia. The largest proportion of Hautqiao populations are in Singapore (78%) and Malaysia (24%).

Reasons for the large population

Why are there so many Chinese? The main reasons are considered to be the following:

1. Favorable climate and profitable geographical position. Fertile soils and moisture allow for the cultivation of many crops. Thus, agriculture has long been the main occupation of the population. A thriving economy requires a lot of labor, so large families- this has always been prestigious and stable. The more children there are in a family, the more peaceful and secure old age awaits parents.
2. A special mentality. A real cult of family has long reigned in the country, and divorces were something unthinkable. Now, of course, young urban population gains sexual experience early, so-called civil marriages and extramarital affairs are common.
3. Politics of Mao Zedong. At the turn of the fifties and sixties, the leader introduced the Great Leap Forward policy, the goal of which was to make China the most powerful country in the world. People were urged to increase the birth rate. It was during those years that the population more than doubled.

Mao Zedong's Great Leap Forward

Mao Zedong said that there is strength in numbers and called for increasing the birth rate. The country needed workers, farmers, soldiers. The leader launched mass construction, nationalized industry and collectivized agriculture.

To Mao's successors, Zedong left the country in complete crisis, about twenty million people became victims of his policies, and another hundred million suffered in one way or another. But one cannot help but admit that it was Mao who, having received an underdeveloped country, made it independent, quite powerful, and possessing nuclear weapons.

During his reign, the population of the People's Republic of China more than doubled, the rate of adult illiteracy dropped from 80% to 7%, and the amount of goods produced increased tenfold. He also managed to unite the Celestial Empire within almost the same borders that existed during the Empire.

Stabilization of population growth

The first population stabilization campaign was carried out in 1956-1958. Then the Chinese were aimed at labor and general collectivization. “Containment” failed and the population increased. The government made a second attempt in 1962. Then the urban population was encouraged to marry late and have long intervals between the births of children.

The main stage of the birth control policy occurred in the seventies. Then a family could be created only from the age of 25 for girls and from 28 years old for men (residents of rural areas from 23 and 25 years old, respectively). Also, at least four years had to pass between the birth of the first and second child.

The population was actively encouraged to use contraception, and at the same time the number of abortions increased. By the way, China is still the leader in the number of abortions - about 13 million cases of termination of pregnancy at the request of a woman are performed annually.

Policy "One family - one child"

The fourth stage of fertility decline in China began with the motto “One family, one child” in 1979. The authorities planned to keep the population of the Middle Kingdom at 1.2 billion people by 2000. After a slight easing, the policy was tightened again (from the late eighties).

Families were allowed to have only one child, and a very large fine was imposed for intentional or accidental conception and birth of a second one. For many, this was simply an unaffordable amount. Therefore, a network of planning centers appeared in the country where Chinese women could have an abortion. However, another problem arose: even with their first child, Chinese women terminated their pregnancy if it turned out that the fetus was female.

The course can be considered successful, since the consequence was a decrease in the population to the level of “approximately 1.2 billion” people. Tough demographic policies prevented the emergence of about 400 million “extra” people. However, both Chinese and foreign experts consider the claim about the success of the “One Family - One Child” course to be very doubtful.

Positive effects of the policy

First positive effects already emerged in the eighties. The strain on the economy then eased as the number of births fell sharply. To the only child parents tried to give the best, and the state helped them with this. Children from such families received higher education much more often than those who have brothers and sisters.

Negative consequences of the demographic course

The downsides of the tough demographic policy were the following:

1. Decline in the female population.
2. A large number of selfish children. It is more difficult for such a child to grow up, interact with society and communicate.
3. The number of elderly people significantly exceeded the number of able-bodied people.
4. Quotas for the birth of children force Chinese women to be sent to give birth in other countries, usually to Hong Kong.

Cancellation of population policy

In 2015, the “One family, one child” policy was announced to be abolished. How many children can the Chinese have now? Since 2016, parents have been allowed to have two children. It is expected that the number of abortions in women pregnant with girls will decrease, the number of older people will decrease in relation to the working population, and the burden on the economy will decrease.

Features of maintaining statistics

Many experts believe that the demographic indicators of China and some other Asian countries are greatly overestimated, and there is evidence of this. The first thing you can pay attention to is the fact that in China there are no registration authorities, like Russian registry offices. Once every ten years a population census is conducted (and even then it is not known how “thorough”), but there is no more data, only forecasts and opinions.

The obviously unreliable facts are also supported by the fact that if we sum up the population of the twenty largest cities in the Celestial Empire, there will be no more than 250 million. So, the question: “Why are there so many Chinese?” becomes simply irrelevant, because there are not many Chinese, but this is the policy of the state, which provides deliberately unreliable information.

Of course, there is also rural population. But the share of the urban population in 2010 for the first time (!) in the Middle Kingdom exceeded 50%, amounting to almost 52%. Adding rural residents, we get a total population of approximately 500 million people. Another 10% of the population in China live without permanent registration, so the maximum population is 600 million people, and not 1.3 billion, as everyone used to think.

There are many studies confirming that the real population is greatly overestimated, but so far there have been no official comments on this matter.

Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption There is no indication yet that lifting restrictions will lead to a baby boom in China

The Chinese authorities have decided to abandon the “one family, one child” policy that has existed for many years. At one time, it was introduced to reduce the birth rate due to fears that the country's population was aging too quickly. How does this situation look from a statistical point of view?

400 million unborn children

According to the Chinese government, the country's one-child-per-family policy since 1979 has left an estimated 400 million children unborn. For those who wanted to have a second child, fines and other types of punishment were provided.

However, Oxford University sociology professor Stuart Gitel-Basten doubts that the costs of existing policies can be so great. He argues that China's birth rate has been declining since the early 1970s. In 1970, the rate was 5.8 births per woman, and by 1978 it had fallen to 2.7.

During the entire period of the one-child policy, this indicator worsened only slightly - 1.7 births per woman by 2013.

In 2007, Chinese authorities claimed that only 36% of the country's population was limited in having a second child. At that time, some relaxations were introduced, and married couples were allowed to give birth to a second child if the parents themselves were the only children in their families.

"This figure of 400 million means that many children could have been born if the fertility rate had remained at the same level," says Gitel-Basten. China would then be in a unique position among countries undergoing similar industrial and economic transformations.

In 2013, Singapore's fertility rate and South Korea was 1.2 births per woman, in Japan – 1.4, in the Philippines – 3 and in Indonesia – 2.3.

Another expert from the University of North Carolina, Tsai Yong, believes that the one-child policy was adversely affecting the mental well-being of many married couples. They tried to give birth to the first one as early as possible so that they could give birth to the second one if they were given permission.

Suspicious skew

The one-child policy is often blamed for leading to the killing of newborn daughters, as traditionally women in Chinese society have had a harder time finding high-paying jobs than men.

According to statistics, in the 1970s, out of every thousand boys born, 60 did not live to see one year old. For girls, this figure was 53. In the 1980s, when the one-child policy was just introduced, the mortality rate for both sexes was equal and was 36 per thousand .

However, in the 1990s, a gap emerged again, only this time, out of a thousand boys, 26 did not live to see one year old, and out of a thousand girls, 33. In the 2000s, these figures were 21 for boys and 28 for girls, respectively.

Of course, these child mortality figures include everything from accidents to disease. But still, the ratio of the numbers itself is very indicative. According to Warwick University economist Jonathan Cave, it would be fair to assume that infanticide is involved.

True infanticide, the deliberate killing of children, is very rare, but as Basten points out, some families in great need may prefer boys when it comes to medical care and care.

Parents in rural areas were allowed to have a second child if the first child was a girl. According to Cave, this was partly an attempt to reduce infanticide and child abuse.

For every girl there are 1.16 boys

According to official data, for every person born in China. The CIA World Factbook states that only Liechtenstein has a higher ratio, with 1.26 boys for every girl.

Selective abortions are said to be the main reason for this imbalance in China.

However, Professor Gitel-Basten argues that the data for China is very incomplete, and the births of many girls are not registered in cases where parents break the law and have a second child.

When it comes to school, the enrollment numbers for boys and girls are noticeably more equal, Gitel-Basten points out, because officials often turn a blind eye to such things.

“I am sure that in some areas the one-child policy has had a noticeable impact on the ratio of girls to boys,” admits Professor Gitel-Basten, “but overall the results of this policy are likely to be modest. In those places where it is possible "You would expect the greatest effect to be in poor rural areas - but there is virtually no effect. Moreover, in some of these places the rule was revised back in 1984, when parents were allowed to have two children."

Overall, there are 33 million more men than women living in China today.

Family according to the formula "4:2:1"

As China's population ages and the one-child policy continues, the formula "4:2:1" has emerged, which describes a family with four grandparents, two working parents and one child.

In a society where relatives traditionally care for their elderly parents, and where social services are not up to par, this places an additional burden on working parents, especially the mother.

By 2050, a quarter of China's population is expected to be 65 years of age or older. In 2013, for comparison, the share of this age category was only 9.7%.

The predicted reduction in the number of people of working age prompted the country's communist authorities to abandon the one-child policy.

Two trillion fines

Since 1980, Chinese authorities have collected two trillion yuan ($315 billion) in fines for violating the one-child policy, according to the Economist.

The highest fine, 7.5 million yuan ($1.2 million), is believed to have been handed down last year to film director Zhang Yimou and his wife for allowing themselves to have a third child.

The fines vary depending on family income to prevent wealthy Chinese from having as many children as they want and getting away with fines.

In the future, fines will only be imposed on families with more than two children.