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| Reasons for the emergence of cities of millionaires. Development of cities and territories. Study protocol |
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IntroductionMillionaire cities or million-plus cities- a group of cities on the territory of the Russian Federation, the population within the administrative-territorial boundaries of which exceeds 1 million people. 1. Basic informationMillionaire cities in Russia are the most important places of concentration and attraction of human, labor, industrial, cultural, economic resources and centers of socio-economic development both for their region and usually for several surrounding regions at once, and some of them (Moscow and nearby to the borders) - also for the CIS countries and Asia. Their importance in this capacity depends not only on the number of residents, but also on a number of other factors, the most important of which are the level of income of the population, the accumulated economic and cultural potential, as well as the specifics of neighboring regions, for which millionaires are centers of transport, higher education, and trade , logistics, culture, etc. During the Soviet era, millionaire cities had the right to own the metro and some other normatively distributed resources and public goods, but the likelihood and priority of receiving them was determined both by the standards of the State Planning Committee and, to a large extent, by the informal relations of the heads of the corresponding regions with the central authorities. In post-Soviet times, millionaire cities are also distinguished by a special attitude from the government (the same inclusion in the state metro construction program, support for the development of road infrastructure since 2006, etc.) and, being large markets for themselves and for surrounding territories, attract investments related to with the production of consumer goods, trade and services (dealer, service and operator centers, bank branches, points of federal and international retail chains, etc.) According to current statistical data, there are currently (2010) 12 millionaire cities in Russia, which is the fifth largest number of millionaire cities among all countries in the world. Perm was a millionaire city until 2004, Volgograd - until 1999, in 2002-2005. and has been so again since 2010.
So only two multimillionaire city(Moscow and St. Petersburg) have a population of more than 4 million people, and only one - Moscow - more than 10 million. Among the economic regions of Russia, the most millionaire cities are in the Ural economic region (Ekaterinburg, Chelyabinsk, Ufa and, until 2004, Perm). In accordance with the political and administrative macro-zoning, the largest number of millionaire cities are in the Volga Federal District (Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Kazan, Ufa and, until 2004, Perm). The structure of economic regions of Russia by the number of millionaire cities is as follows:
The structure of Russian federal districts by the number of millionaire cities is as follows:
A number of the largest cities in Russia with a population of more than 700 thousand, but less than 1 million - Perm, Krasnoyarsk, Saratov, Voronezh, Krasnodar, Tolyatti - are sometimes called sub-millionaire cities. Perm, which was once a millionaire, as well as Krasnoyarsk are often called millionaires in journalism and semi-officially. Most of all these millionaire and submillionaire cities (except for Tolyatti and partly Saratov) are interregional centers of socio-economic development and attraction, which, at the same time, exist among cities with smaller populations (Khabarovsk for the Far East). According to the preliminary results of the 2010 census, Makhachkala, one of the few and fastest growing of the largest Russian cities, the absolute majority of which in post-Soviet times had negative population dynamics, has come close to becoming a sub-millionaire city of 700 thousand. Almost a quarter of Russia's population (22%) lives in the 18 largest cities (-multi-millionaires, -millionaires and -sub-millionaires). A third of the urban population (31%) is concentrated in them.
Millionaire cities are the centers of urban agglomerations, which further characterize the population and importance of the city. 2. Millionaire agglomerationsAmong the agglomerations of Russia (see article) there are 22 with a population of more than 1 million
Thus, 10 millionaire agglomerations* are formed by cities that are not millionaire cities: Krasnoyarsk, Voronezh, Perm, Saratov, Krasnodar, Irkutsk, Vladivostok, Novokuznetsk, Naberezhnye Chelny, Tula. However, not all of them are interregional centers of socio-economic development and attraction for surrounding regions, or at least claim this status. Some individual experts estimate three more agglomerations with non-millionaire cities - Izhevsk, Yaroslavl, Bryansk - as having a population of millions (see article), which, however, does not agree with other sources. 3. BackgroundThe population of the largest cities of Kievan Rus (Kyiv, Novgorod, Chernigov and Vladimir), according to estimates, did not exceed 100 thousand people. In the Russian Empire, despite the growth of the urban population, its share remained very low, since the natural increase in the rural population was higher. Most of the urban population were residents of small towns, which often differed little from large rural settlements. Urbanization in Russia began only in the middle of the 19th century in connection with the development of industry, transport and trade, the abolition of serfdom and the mass migration of rural residents to cities. 4. Formation of the first millionaire cities and multimillionaire citiesThe modern capitals of the Russian Federation, Moscow and St. Petersburg, acquired the status of millionaire cities only at the very turn of the 19th century - later than many European capitals. 4.1. Saint PetersburgThe history of Russian millionaire cities and large urban agglomerations began around 1890, when the population of the capital St. Petersburg crossed the million mark (in 1858, before the abolition of serfdom, the city had 520.1 thousand inhabitants). The rapid growth of its population continued until the revolution of 1917, when the city had about 2.4 million inhabitants. The shocks of the Civil War led to a strong depopulation of Petrograd (primarily due to the return of many workers to the countryside, epidemics, repressions and emigration of intellectuals); the transfer of the capital to Moscow also had negative consequences for the city's population. In 1920, only 722 thousand inhabitants remained in the city. The stabilization of the situation in the country and the NEP contributed to some economic revival, which led to the second stage of growth in the population of Leningrad - up to 3.25 million people before the Second World War. The siege of Leningrad, active hostilities and evacuation led to a reduction in the population to 2.5 million people. The third stage of growth began after the liberation of 1944, when evacuees returned to the city and the influx of population from neighboring agricultural areas increased. The city's population reached its historical maximum (about 5.0 million) in the early 1990s, but since the mid-1930s, the Soviet government and the Leningrad administration made unsuccessful attempts to limit the growth of the city's population: a typical Soviet institution of registration arose. Since the early 1990s, due to the deterioration of the demographic situation (as well as emigration until the mid-1990s) and suburbanization [ source not specified 778 days] the city's population began to decline and currently stands at about 4.7 million. Population of Moscow and St. Petersburg.
St. Petersburg (59.95, 30.31666759°57′N 30°19′E / 59.95°N 30.316667°E (G)) is the closest city to the Earth's geographic pole world with a population of over a million people. 4.2. MoscowAfter the capital was transferred from Moscow to St. Petersburg in 1703, the growth rate and population of the latter significantly exceeded those of Moscow. However, after the abolition of serfdom, the population of Moscow also began to increase rapidly, and by 1897 (the year of the first and only census of the Russian Empire) reached 1.038 million people, and by 1917 - 1.9 million (still inferior to St. Petersburg with its 2.4 million). As in St. Petersburg, the cataclysms of the early 20th century also affected the growth dynamics of the Moscow population, however, firstly, the declines were more smoothed out, and, secondly, the newly acquired status of the Russian capital made Moscow more attractive for officials and economic migrants. Despite the strict institution of registration, thanks to the influx of workers recruited for enterprises and organizations (the so-called “limiters”), as well as the growth of the central offices of state institutions and organizations of science, education and culture at the all-Union and all-Russian level, official and fictitious marriages of visitors with Muscovites, etc. ., the population of the city in the second half of the 20th century increased by an average of 1 million per 10 years. Due to the even greater excess of the level of income and development of the capital relative to the rest of the country, the influx of wealthy citizens and other economic migrants migrating for higher earnings than in their regions and countries, purchasing housing, and other economic migrants allowed Moscow to continue to increase its population in the post-Soviet era, despite to the negative dynamics of the country's natural growth. According to the 2002 census, the city's population was about 10.5 million people, according to preliminary data from the 2010 census - about 12 million people, but estimates of the actual actual population of Moscow significantly exceed this figure (due to the large number of unregistered economic migrants) [ source not specified 778 days] .
5. Features of development5.1. Growth and development during the Soviet eraThe maximum number of millionaire cities in the RSFSR reached 13. Some of these cities were small towns at the beginning of the century, but experienced rapid growth due to industrialization and other reasons. Novosibirsk turned out to be one of the planet's record holders for reaching a population of one million. Some of the cities owe their explosive growth, which brought their subsequent emergence as millionaires, to the evacuation of human and industrial potential during the Great Patriotic War. Subsequently, the high status of millionaire cities within the Soviet administrative system made them attractive to economic migrants. In order to improve their own status, the authorities of some USSR cities lobbied for the inclusion of suburbs, which are often still poorly integrated into the urban environment due to insufficient infrastructure development. Cities from the first group of Russian cities that became millionaires only several decades after Moscow and St. Petersburg - in the 60s of the 20th century:
In the 70s, the status of millionaire cities was given to:
The “youngest” millionaire cities received this status in the 80s of the last century:
It was assumed that some of the submillionaire cities would soon achieve this status - Krasnoyarsk, Saratov, Voronezh. Both in the country as a whole, and among its urban population in particular, in post-Soviet times, in almost all millionaire cities of Russia there is a negative natural population growth, which is not compensated by influx migration processes. While there is a general downward trend in population, the pace of this depopulation (or individual growth) in each of the millionaire cities varies somewhat. In general, the well-being of cities is determined by the level of development of the service sector and the presence or absence of nearby competing interregional centers of development and attraction. With the exception of Moscow, Kazan and partly Omsk, Yekaterinburg, almost all millionaire cities have experienced depopulation in all years since the beginning of the 90s. St. Petersburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, and Perm lost their population especially significantly (up to 100-150 thousand people over 15 years). According to statistical data, during this time, two Russian cities dropped out of the category of millionaire cities - Perm in 2004 and Volgograd in 1999, 2005-2010. - and there was a threat for Ufa to drop out if the trend of negative growth continued. Only since the mid-to-late 2000s have a number of cities experienced population growth. At the end of 2009, in addition to Moscow, population growth was demonstrated by such cities as St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Kazan, Ufa, Rostov-on-Don and partly Chelyabinsk, while the decline continued in Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, and Omsk. According to the preliminary results of the 2010 All-Russian Census, Ufa and Volgograd remained among the millionaire cities, Perm finally lost this status, and Krasnoyarsk and Voronezh came closer to it. Volgograd lost its status as a millionaire city in 1999 and regained it only with the 2002 All-Russian Census. In 2005, according to current statistical data, the city's population again amounted to less than 1 million inhabitants. Six months before the 2010 census (in March of the same year), Volgograd regained its status as a millionaire city by expanding the city limits. A similar attempt by Voronezh to become one of the millionaire cities for the first time by annexing a very large number of nearby settlements (totaling about 81 thousand people) in 2009-2010 was not successful - about 30 thousand were not enough to achieve this status. In the future, the number of millionaire cities may increase: in the near future - during the process of consolidation of Russian cities as a result of the completed and planned inclusion by local authorities of part of the surrounding settlements of the agglomeration into the city during the formation of municipalities-urban districts (see articles Krasnoyarsk, Krasnodar, etc. .the above-mentioned submillionaire cities, as well as Irkutsk, Tomsk), as well as in the longer term - as a result of the implementation of programs planned by the Russian government (Ministry of Regional Development and Ministry of Economic Development) to create the so-called. “core cities” (also Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, Tyumen) and new satellite cities (near Cheboksary, Ulyanovsk, Penza, Kemerovo, Lipetsk) (, , ,). Notes
In modern Russia, this status makes it possible to participate in a larger number of federal programs and projects, including national ones, and to receive increased tranches from the federal budget. All main indicators for determining budget expenditures to solve the problems facing large metropolitan areas are calculated based on the number of residents. This includes the construction of hospitals and clinics, kindergartens, the development of the city’s road network and high-speed transport lines. Some programs at the present stage are implemented only in cities with more than a million inhabitants. In addition, the status of a million-plus city helps to increase its investment attractiveness. The business strategies of many reputable companies are designed exclusively for large cities. 1 The relevance of this topic is due to the fact that the number of million-plus cities is currently increasing, and at the same time a number of problems. The purpose of this work is to study the emergence and growth of millionaire cities. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:
Millionaire cities of Russia The rise of millionaire cities The object is the features of the development of millionaire cities in Russia. The emergence of citiesThe largest cities of ancient and modern timesBefore our era, the largest urban cultures of antiquity, where most of the world's population lived, including urban ones, were located in Asia.The first large cities arose about 4 thousand years ago in the densely populated agricultural areas of Mesopotamia, in the valley of the Nile, Indus (in western India), and Yellow River (in northern China). The emergence of cities is associated with economic progress - the emergence of surplus food necessary to provide for the non-agricultural population. Cities arose both as residences of rulers (for example, in Ancient Egypt - as residences of pharaohs and priests), as fortresses, the main function of which was defense. In this case, they were located in the most strategically advantageous places. In the Middle Ages, the largest cities in the world were Nanjing (470 thousand people), Cairo (450 thousand people), Vijavanagar (350 thousand people), Beijing (320 thousand people). The largest city in Europe was Paris (275 thousand), Milan and Venice were almost half behind it, and the population of London, which by the beginning of the 19th century had become the largest city in the world with a population of 870 thousand people, barely reached 50 thousand people. One of the largest cities in the world was Tenochtitlan, the capital of the Aztecs, destroyed by the conquistadors in the early 19th century.At the beginning of the 18th century, it is estimated that no more than 10% of the world's population lived in cities. Some of the largest cities of the Middle Ages still exist today, the development of others has slowed down, and they have turned into small provincial centers, and some have disappeared altogether.The development of large modern cities as economic, political and commercial centers is associated with the emergence of manufacturing and factory production. The concentration of population in cities became possible primarily due to the development of energy: the development of technologies for the extraction, use and transportation of coal, and later oil. The most important functions of cities since the beginning of the industrial revolution have become: production of goods and services, management and inter-district exchange. Only in the twentieth century. urbanization has become the main factor in economic development and changes in the territorial organization of society in most countries of the world. During the 20th century, the number of city dwellers increased sharply, and the number of cities, especially large ones, increased.The urban population grew mainly due to migration from rural areas (this factor is the most important in the initial stages of urbanization), natural population growth and urbanization of rural areas - the reclassification of rural settlements into urban ones.If at the beginning of the 20th century. only 14% of the world's population lived in cities and there were 16 millionaire cities, then by 1950 the share of the urbanized population increased more than 2 times, and the number of millionaire cities - almost 5. It is expected that by 2000. Half of the Earth's inhabitants will be city dwellers, and the number of millionaire cities will be 440.The concentration of population, economic and political life in large cities observed during the 20th century led to the formation of an idea of a world economy concentrated exclusively in cities, each of which is surrounded by a “heart-shaped” region with maximum changes in natural landscapes, a transition zone and a vast, little affected by the achievements of modern civilizations on the periphery. Cities and agglomerations, connected by transport routes, become the supporting framework of settlement. 2Millionaire cities in RussiaThe city is a model of the human society that gave birth to it. It has an amazing ability to reflect the characteristics of the region in which it is located; ethnic group living in this part of the Earth; industries represented in its production structure. The special significance of cities lies in the fact that they create conditions for humanity to move forward. They have arsenals of information, connect different spheres of activity, at the intersection of which points of growth arise in culture, science, technology and politics. They have a special atmosphere of communication, a multi-contact environment.In modern Russia, cities with a population of more than a million people, which account for almost a quarter of the country's population, play a huge role in the economy and life of the country. These cities are distinguished by a complex industrial and administrative structure, high employment and the greatest social differentiation. Functions of cities: industrial, transport, scientific centers, resort cities, etc. Cities that perform several functions (multifunctional) are often the capitals of administrative entities - Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnoyarsk. In general, the development of urban settlement in the country can be considered insufficient for such a huge state as Russia. A fairly dense network of urban settlements has formed only on approximately 1/3 of the country's territory - in the Main Settlement Zone. The development of urban settlement in the rest of the country is hampered by harsh natural conditions and insufficient demographic potential. This problem has worsened over the past decade as hundreds of small urban settlements have disappeared and the formation of new urban settlements has virtually ceased. 3. Large cities in Russia, being important industrial, scientific and cultural centers, at the same time create many difficulties for their residents and worsen the environmental situation. Despite the advantages of large cities, their growth cannot be unlimited, since difficulties arise in providing people with water, food, preserving green areas, clean air, social problems are intensifying: crime is growing, transport is becoming more difficult, etc. Approximately 35 Russian cities have completely unacceptable levels of air pollution. An acute environmental situation has developed in Novokuznetsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, Omsk, Nikel, etc. In this regard, urgent measures are needed to limit the growth of large and development of small and medium-sized cities in Russia. 4 Million cities (or millionaire cities) are cities with a population of over a million people. As of the end of 2012, there were 15 millionaire cities in Russia:
St. Petersburg (pop. 4.8 million) Novosibirsk (population 1.47 million) Yekaterinburg (pop. 1.35 million) Nizhny Novgorod (population 1.25 million) Samara (pop. 1.16 million) Omsk (population 1.15 million) Kazan (pop. 1.14 million) Chelyabinsk (population 1.13 million) Rostov-on-Don (population 1.09 million) Ufa (population 1.06 million) Volgograd (pop. 1.02 million) Perm (1001 thousand people) Krasnoyarsk (millionth resident born on April 10, 2012) Voronezh (millionth resident born on December 17, 2012) A city with a million population is a special status. In Soviet times, cities with a population of over a million had priority in financing. Benefits such as the metro were also associated with population size. In modern Russia, this status makes it possible to participate in a larger number of federal programs and projects, including national ones, and to receive increased tranches from the federal budget. All main indicators for determining budget expenditures to solve the problems facing large metropolitan areas are calculated based on the number of residents. This includes the construction of hospitals and clinics, kindergartens, the development of the city’s road network and high-speed transport lines. Some programs at the present stage are implemented only in cities with more than a million inhabitants. In addition, the status of a million-plus city helps to increase its investment attractiveness. The business strategies of many reputable companies are designed exclusively for large cities. 5 Rise of millionaire citiesRapid growth of large cities in the 19th century. objectively determined the emergence of a special category of urban settlements - millionaire cities. In 1900 the largest were London (4536 thousand), New York (3437 thousand), Paris (2714 thousand), Berlin (1890 thousand), Chicago (1699 thousand), Vienna (1662 thousand), Tokyo (1497 thousand), St. Petersburg (1265 thousand).The growth of large cities and their suburbs gave rise to a tendency for nearby large and small settlements to merge into giant urban agglomerations or conurbations as they were then called. By the beginning of the 20th century. This kind of new urban formations appeared in a number of areas of Great Britain, Central Scotland, and Germany. In the 20th century the growth of millionaire cities has accelerated, and from the second half, urban sprawl has become a universal process and a global problem. All regions of the world are being drawn into this process, regardless of the level of urbanization, socio-economic and cultural-historical development. In the first half of the 20th century. the number of millionaire cities increased from 16 to 75–80, and from 1950 to 1990 from 77 to 275, and their total population increased from 187 to 800 million people. By 2010, their number will reach 511 and by 2025 - 639. In 1985, developed countries accounted for 110 millionaire cities, and all other cities - 146; by 2025, a different ratio is predicted: 153 will be in the developed world and 486 in the developing world. From the second half of the 20th century. The growth of large cities in the world is carried out mainly at the expense of developing countries. In the UN directories, from the diverse and quantitatively significant category of millionaire cities, super-large cities - mega-cities (metropolises) and metropolitan areas with a population of 8 million people or more - are identified and clearly defined as an independent group. In 1950, only New York and London exceeded the indicated population, in 1960 Tokyo and Beijing joined them, and in 1970 the number of mega-cities increased to 11, including 5 in developing countries (Mexico City, Beijing, Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro). The total number of mega-cities in the West reached six by 1970 and has not changed since that period. The growth of mega-cities, which began in the West and reached its limits in this part of the world, continues dynamically in developing countries. In 2000, the number of mega-cities grew to 19, and by 2015 it will increase to 27. Mega-cities with a population of over 10 million residents include many giant cities of Asia - Bombay, Greater Manila, Jakarta, Seoul and others. 6 The growth and development of modern cities are associated primarily with economic benefits - the so-called agglomeration economy: the concentration of producers and consumers in a limited area in itself becomes a source of additional income due to a reduction in production costs per unit of output (the possibility of creating production facilities of optimal size) and reduction transport costs (proximity of buyers and sellers, creation of common infrastructure). However, the economic gain from the growth of the area and population of the city increases only to certain limits - until the inevitably increasing transport costs for transporting industrial goods, raw materials and passengers are beneficial for the given production costs. The aggravation of environmental problems in large urban agglomerations, the development of personal transport and modern means of communication lead to an outflow of the population to suburban areas of suburbanization. This phenomenon is largely facilitated by cheaper prices for land plots outside cities and the movement of knowledge-intensive industries to suburban industrial parks, for which the significance of the agglomeration effect is small. 7 ConclusionThe rapid growth of cities in recent decades is what I usually call the “urban revolution” in scientific literature. The growth of urban settlements is so intense that, according to preliminary estimates, by 2005 at least half of the world's population will live in them. Modern demographic trends contribute to the fact that already 2/3 of the world's city dwellers are concentrated in developing countries, where 65 million people become new city residents every year. According to UN experts, this will lead to the fact that by 2025 the level of urbanization in developing countries will exceed 80%. There is not only an increase in the population of cities, but also a concentration of people in individual large urban agglomerations - megacities. Large cities are not just growing rapidly, absorbing surrounding villages, they are merging with each other, forming megacities with a population of many tens of millions of people.Megacities - due to the huge concentration of people, industrial enterprises, and transport in them - are the largest consumers of all types of natural resources - territorial, energy, food and the most important sources of environmental pollution. The load on the natural environment is increasing sharply not only in the megacities themselves, but also outside them. The most important problems of our time include the provision of water to residents of megacities and the disposal of wastewater. Garbage removal and disposal of human waste are considered serious problems.In megacities, a special microclimate is formed. Residential development reduces wind speed, and stagnant air contributes to the concentration of highly toxic industrial pollutants. Smog - a mixture of smoke, dust and fog, reducing the amount of sunlight, causes serious illness in people. The air temperature in cities is always slightly higher than the average temperature of the area. “Heating” of the urban atmosphere occurs due to the combustion of automobile fuel, heating of buildings and their subsequent cooling, and from the release of radiation heat from all urban objects. In cities at temperate latitudes, the snow melts earlier and the plants turn green. Often in winter, birds that usually winter in other regions do not fly away from cities; Simplified communities of fauna and flora are formed in cities. Nevertheless, we must be clear about the fact that a significant part of the world's population will continue to live in megacities. This reality is motivated by the peculiarities of people's lives, their work, the level of modern technology and many other reasons. The growth of megacities is a “natural phenomenon”, the result of self-organization of society, as a result of which the interconnectedness of people is growing. We must accept this reality and learn to build megacities in such a way as to avoid, if possible, the problems that characterize them today. 8 Bibliography:
Million-plus cities in Russia. [Electronic resource] URL: http://www.perepis-2010.ru/ news/detail.php?ID=7177 (Date of access: 17.12.12) Kitanovich B. Planet and civilization in danger / Kitanovich B. - M.: Mysl, 1991. - P. 239 Megapolis at the turn of the century. Socio-economic and environmental aspects. Economic and social problems of Russia 2000. Vol. 1. M., 2000 Murtuzalieva E. A., Garunova N.N. CITY DEVELOPMENT IN THE HISTORY OF WESTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IN THE XVI-XIX CENTURIES: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS [Electronic resource] URL: http://www.rae.ru/forum2012/7/ 2817 (Access date: 12/17/12) Ozerova G.N., Pokshishevsky V.V. Geography of the world urbanization process: A manual for teachers. - M.: Education, 1981. - 202 P. Pertsik E.N. Geography of cities (geo-urban studies) / Pertsik E.N. – M.: Higher School, 1991. – 326 P. |
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| CITY | POPULATION ACCORDING TO THE 2002 ALL-RUSSIAN CENSUS, THOUSAND PEOPLE. | POPULATION AT THE BEGINNING OF 2005, THOUSAND PEOPLE | POPULATION AT THE BEGINNING OF 2008, THOUSAND PEOPLE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moscow | 10 102 | 10 149 | 10 470 |
| 2 | Saint Petersburg | 4 669 | 4 600 | 4 568 |
| 3 | Novosibirsk | 1 426 | 1 406 | 1 391 |
| 4 | Ekaterinburg | 1 311 | 1 288 | 1 323 |
| 5 | Nizhny Novgorod | 1 293 | 1 284 | 1 275 |
| 6 | Samara | 1 158 | 1 133 | 1 135 |
| 7 | Omsk | 1 134 | 1 129 | 1 131 |
| 8 | Kazan | 1 105 | 1 110 | 1 120 |
| 9 | Chelyabinsk | 1 078 | 1 063 | 1 093 |
| 10 | Rostov-on-Don | 1 070 | 1 058 | 1 049 |
| 11 | Ufa | 1 042 | 1 036 | 1 022 |
| 12 | Volgograd | 1 013 | 1 026 | 984 |
| 13 | Permian | 1 002 | 989 | 987 |
Another negative aspect of the demographic situation in Russia is the growing proportion of single women. If earlier the song sang that “for ten girls, according to statistics, there are nine boys,” now the figures show that there are already 9 boys for almost 11 girls (according to statistics for 2006, the male population in Russia is 46.5% , female - 53.5%). Compared even to European countries, the share of men in the total population in Russia is lower. For example, in Germany the number of men is close to half (48.8%), in Poland - 48.6%. In a number of Asian countries, the male population exceeds the female population; in China, a shortage of brides is generally expected. The lack of men of marriageable age in our country is also associated with such phenomena as the growth of drug addiction and the promotion of freedom of sexual orientation. Many cities in Russia and the CIS countries feel the problem of the outflow of men who go to work in other areas. All this has an impact on retail trade - single women and single-parent families have less purchasing power and the need for fewer product groups.
The Russian capital is a unique phenomenon in the country not only in terms of population size, but also its density. In the table below we present population density indicators in major cities of Russia, the capitals of the former USSR and famous cities of the world. Among the capitals of neighboring countries, Moscow leads in population density by a wide margin. Moscow is one of the most densely populated cities also at the world level. The population density in Moscow is much higher than in European cities (except Paris), and in terms of density, Moscow occupies a place between Istanbul and Tehran and is closer to the overpopulated megacities of Asia - Jakarta, Bombay and Kolkata.
| CITY | AREA, SQ.KM | POPULATION, PERSON | POPULATION DENSITY PERSON PER 1 SQ.KM |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MOSCOW | 1081 | 10 509 000 | 9722 |
| 2 | KRASNOYARSK | 250 | 948 507 | 3794 |
| 3 | SAINT PETERSBURG | 1439 | 4 581 854 | 3184 |
| 4 | ROSTOV-ON-DON | 349 | 1 048 714 | 3005 |
| 5 |
NIZHNY NOVGOROD | 441 | 1 286 433 | 2917 |
| 6 | NOVOSIBIRSK | 503 | 1 390 513 | 2764 |
| 7 | KAZAN | 425 | 1 130 717 | 2661 |
| 8 | SAMARA | 466 | 1 139 040 | 2444 |
| 9 |
CHELYABINSK | 486 | 1 091 000 | 2245 |
| 10 | SARATOV | 393 | 836 100 | 2127 |
| 11 | OMSK | 573 | 1 131 100 | 1974 |
| 12 | VORONEZH | 590 | 839 921 | 1424 |
| 13 | UFA | 754 | 1 021 458 | 1355 |
| 14 | PERMIAN | 800 | 987 233 | 1234 |
| 15 | EKATERINBURG | 1143 | 1 401 729 | 1226 |
| 16 | VOLGOGRAD | 882 | 984 000 | 1116 |
| 17 | KRASNODAR | 840 | 709 735 | 845 |
| № | A COUNTRY | CITY | AREA, SQ.KM | POPULATION, PERSON | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Russia | MOSCOW | 1081 | 10 509 000 | 9722 |
| 2 | Kyrgyzstan | BISHKEK | 127 | 1 000 000 | 7874 |
| 3 | Uzbekistan | TASHKENT | 335 | 2 180 000 | 6507 |
| 4 | Belarus | MINSK | 308 | 1 832 800 | 5951 |
| 5 | Turkmenistan | ASHGABAT | 109 | 600 100 | 5506 |
| 6 | Tajikistan | DUSHANBE | 125 | 661 100 | 5289 |
| 7 | Azerbaijan | BAKU | 390 | 2 036 000 | 5221 |
| 8 | Kazakhstan | ALMATY | 325 | 1 420 747 | 4372 |
| 9 | Armenia | YEREVAN | 300 | 1 113 300 | 3711 |
| 10 | Ukraine | KYIV | 839 | 2 766 564 | 3297 |
| 11 | Georgia | TBILISI | 372 | 1 213 000 | 3261 |
| 12 | Estonia | TALLINN | 159 | 404 556 | 2544 |
| 13 | Latvia | RIGA | 307 | 719 612 | 2344 |
| 14 | Lithuania | VILNIUS | 401 | 555 615 | 1386 |
| 15 | Kazakhstan | ASTANA | 720 | 633 700 | 880 |
* Data in the table and graph are arranged in descending order of population density
| № | CITY | SQUARE, KV.KM |
POPULATION, PERSON | POPULATION DENSITY PERSONS PER SQ.KM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAIRO | 214 | 7 500 000 | 36143 |
| 2 | CALCUTTA | 185 | 4 580 544 | 24760 |
| 3 | BOMBAY | 603 | 13 662 885 | 21665 |
| 4 | PARIS | 105 | 2 144 700 | 20433 |
| 5 | JAKARTA | 662 | 8 792 000 | 13291 |
| 6 | NEW YORK | 1214 | 8 214 426 | 10194 |
| 7 | TEHRAN | 707 | 7 088 287 | 10000 |
| 8 | MOSCOW | 1081 | 10 509 000 | 9722 |
| 9 | NEW DELHI | 43 | 321 883 | 9294 |
| 10 | LAGOS | 1000 | 7 937 932 | 7941 |
| 11 | ISTANBUL | 2106 | 16 767 000 | 6521 |
| 12 | SINGAPORE | 693 | 4 483 900 | 6369 |
| 13 | HONG KONG | 1104 | 6 864 346 | 6352 |
| 14 | MEXICO CITY | 1499 | 18 721 000 | 5817 |
| 15 | TOKYO | 2187 | 12 570 000 | 5796 |
| 16 | RIO DE JANEIRO | 1260 | 6 136 652 | 4781 |
| 17 | CHICAGO | 606 | 2 862 244 | 4723 |
| 18 | LONDON | 1579 | 8 326 842 | 4697 |
| 19 | BRUSSELS | 33 | 148 273 | 4566 |
| 20 | AMSTERDAM | 219 | 743 400 | 3903 |
| 21 | BERLIN | 891 | 3 405 259 | 3818 |
| 22 | STRASBOURG | 78 | 272 800 | 3485 |
| 23 | WASHINGTON | 177 | 588 292 | 3481 |
| 24 | SAINT PETERSBURG | 1439 | 4 581 854 | 3268 |
| 25 | LOS ANGELES | 1291 | 3 849 378 | 3168 |
| 26 | SHANGHAI | 6340 | 18 580 000 | 2640 |
| 27 | HAMBURG | 755 | 1 752 150 | 2317 |
| 28 | ROME | 1285 | 2 823 873 | 2198 |
| 29 | BEIJING | 16800 | 17 000 000 | 1062 |
| 30 | MARSEILLES | 241 | 808 700 | 1047 |
| 31 | MELBOURNE | 8806 | 3 806 092 | 432 |
| 32 | SYDNEY | 12145 | 4 284 379 | 353 |
| 33 | URUMQI | 10 989 | 2 081 834 | 175 |
* Data in the table and graph are arranged in descending order of population density
The importance of population density characteristics for shopping centers can be illustrated with the following example. Let's take the average population density in the city and see how many potential buyers will fall within the zones of influence of conventional shopping centers of regional and regional significance, that is, within a radius of 2.5 km and 5 km:
| CITY | DENSITY POPULATION, people per sq. km |
DISTRICT TC Zone radius coverage - 2.5 km Zone area coverage - 19.47 sq. km |
DISTRICT TC Zone radius coverage - 5 km Zone area coverage - 78.1 sq. km |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population in the coverage area, based on average density, Human |
Population in the coverage area, based on average density, people | ||
| MOSCOW | 9722 | 189 287 | 759 288 |
| KRASNOYARSK | 3794 | 73 870 | 296 314 |
| SAINT PETERSBURG | 3184 | 61 994 | 248 675 |
| ROSTOV-ON-DON | 3005 | 58 506 | 234 684 |
| NIZHNY NOVGOROD | 2917 | 56 796 | 227 824 |
| NOVOSIBIRSK | 2764 | 53 824 | 215 903 |
| KAZAN | 2661 | 51 800 | 207 786 |
| SAMARA | 2444 | 47 590 | 190 899 |
| CHELYABINSK | 2245 | 43 707 | 175 323 |
| SARATOV | 2127 | 41 422 | 166 156 |
| OMSK | 1974 | 38 434 | 154 169 |
| VORONEZH | 1424 | 27 717 | 111 183 |
| UFA | 1355 | 26 376 | 105 804 |
| PERMIAN | 1234 | 24 027 | 96 379 |
| EKATERINBURG | 1226 | 23 877 | 95 779 |
| VOLGOGRAD | 1116 | 21 722 | 87 132 |
| KRASNODAR | 845 | 16 451 | 65 988 |
Of course, the calculation presented in the table is conditional; it only allows us to get an idea of the characteristics of the city’s territory and the possibilities for the construction of various types of shopping centers. And to accurately determine the boundaries of trade zones and estimate the number of people in the coverage area, the isochron method is used (readers will find a detailed analysis technique in the next chapter).
The territory's need for retail space is mathematically related to several factors: the number of population, its income and the amount of profit that traders would like to receive in this market. Let's explain with an example. In the imaginary city of Limonsk, the population is 100,000 people, and the average spending of one resident per month is 100 conventional units (Fig. 2.7). Accordingly, the total amount spent by residents of Limonsk per month is 10 million USD. per month. The minimum turnover per 1 m2 per month, which is considered acceptable by city retailers, is 100 USD. per month. Such a harvest per square meter of area will allow them to cover all costs and make an acceptable profit. In other words, this is not the break-even point, but the minimum “appetites” of traders, the profit for which they agree to work. Dividing the capacity of the local market by the desired turnover per 1 m2, we obtain the total number of areas that can exist in the city: 100,000 m2, the saturation of areas will be 1,000 m2 per 1,000 inhabitants. When the “appetites” of the merchant increase, and the number and income of the population remain unchanged, the total number of areas decreases. So, if traders want to receive not 100, but 500 USD. with 1 m2, under such conditions only 20,000 m2 of retail space in the city will be able to function. There will be a shortage of space, but those traders who have space will be able to ensure consistently high profits. It is interesting that at the turn of the 2000s, the turnover rate per 1 m2 in many Russian stores exceeded those in the United States, but this was only due to the small amount of retail space in Russia at that time. The city's need for space is determined by traders, and in reality this situation is only possible if the construction of new space is artificially restrained. As the population's income grows or its population increases, the city's need for retail space will increase proportionally.
Local market needs for space
| 1) POPULATION AND INCOME DO NOT CHANGE, THE VARIABLE FACTOR IS THE “APPETITES” OF THE TRADERS |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 000 | 100 | 10 000 000 | 100 | 100 000 | 1 000 |
| 100 000 | 100 | 10 000 000 | 200 | 50 000 | 500 |
| 100 000 | 100 | 10 000 000 | 300 | 33 333 | 333 |
| 100 000 | 100 | 10 000 000 | 400 | 25 000 | 250 |
| 100 000 | 100 | 10 000 000 | 500 | 20 000 | 200 |
| 100 000 | 100 | 10 000 000 | 600 | 16 667 | 167 |
| 100 000 | 100 | 10 000 000 | 700 | 14 286 | 143 |
| 100 000 | 100 | 10 000 000 | 800 | 12 500 | 125 |
| 100 000 | 100 | 10 000 000 | 900 | 11 111 | 111 |
| 100 000 | 100 | 10 000 000 | 1000 | 10 000 | 100 |
| 2) THE INCOME AND SPENDING OF THE POPULATION IN THE LOCAL MARKET CHANGE, THE NUMBER OF POPULATION AND THE “APPETITES” OF TRADERS REMAIN UNCHANGED | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local market population, people | Average expenses of 1 resident per month, USD | Capacity of the local market, c.u. | Trader’s “appetite”, turnover per month in USD per 1 m2 | Local market demand for space, m2 | Maximum saturation of areas, m2 per 1000 people. |
| 100 000 | 100 | 10 000 000 | 100 | 100 000 | 1 000 |
| 100 000 | 200 | 20 000 000 | 100 | 200 000 | 2 000 |
| 100 000 | 300 | 30 000 000 | 100 | 300 000 | 3 000 |
| 100 000 | 400 | 40 000 000 | 100 | 400 000 | 4 000 |
| 100 000 | 500 | 50 000 000 | 100 | 500 000 | 5 000 |
| 100 000 | 600 | 60 000 000 | 100 | 600 000 | 6 000 |
| 100 000 | 700 | 70 000 000 | 100 | 700 000 | 7 000 |
| 100 000 | 800 | 80 000 000 | 100 | 800 000 | 8 000 |
| 100 000 | 900 | 90 000 000 | 100 | 900 000 | 9 000 |
| 100 000 | 1000 | 100 000 000 | 100 | 1 000 000 | 10 000 |
| 3) THE POPULATION CHANGES, THE INCOME OF BUYERS AND THE “APPETITES” OF TRADERS REMAIN UNCHANGED | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Local market population, people | Average expenses of 1 resident per month, USD | Capacity of the local market, c.u. | Trader’s “appetite”, turnover per month in USD per 1 m2 | Local market demand for space, m2 | Maximum saturation of areas, m2 per 1000 people. |
| 100 000 | 100 | 10 000 000 | 100 | 100 000 | 1 000 |
| 200 000 | 100 | 20 000 000 | 100 | 200 000 | 2 000 |
| 300 000 | 100 | 30 000 000 | 100 | 300 000 | 3 000 |
| 400 000 | 100 | 40 000 000 | 100 | 400 000 | 4 000 |
| 500 000 | 100 | 50 000 000 | 100 | 500 000 | 5 000 |
| 600 000 | 100 | 60 000 000 | 100 | 600 000 | 6 000 |
| 700 000 | 100 | 70 000 000 | 100 | 700 000 | 7 000 |
| 800 000 | 100 | 80 000 000 | 100 | 800 000 | 8 000 |
| 900 000 | 100 | 90 000 000 | 100 | 900 000 | 9 000 |
| 1 000 000 | 100 | 100 000 000 | 100 | 1 000 000 | 10 000 |
The next important factor influencing trade and retail real estate is the flow of residents of the territory.
Flows in cities and between cities. The impact of flows on trade and real estate development.
At the territory level, three main types of flows can be distinguished:
- “Pendulum” flows are regular movements from home to work and back, which residents make by car or on foot. The main routes of “pendulum” flows are clearly visible on the city map (especially if the city is small and has a city-forming enterprise). An example of automobile “pendulum” flows to Moscow from “sleeping” areas and suburbs is shown in Fig. 2.8. Pedestrian flows in the city are drawn to transport stops, and it is in these places that nodes of pedestrian activity in the area arise (Fig. 2.9). In the following Figure 2.10 we showed the formation of an intense flow in the office area of the city, near the Paveletskaya metro station. Coming from thin streams of people flowing from dead-end streets, the stream turns into a full-flowing river on the main street of the office area and carries white-collar workers to the subway and commuter trains.
- Regular flows to supply facilities (shops, service enterprises, etc.). Such flows are part of the daily life of any settlement or region, they can also be plotted on a map, since the routes remain unchanged, they change only when new supply facilities appear.
- Periodic flows: to large supply facilities, places of entertainment, recreation and leisure, tourist sites, etc. City residents make such trips from time to time; for example, in their free time, a city resident can go on a visit, to the zoo, to a museum or to a large shopping center.
An example of the intensity distribution of typical traffic flows by hour is shown in Figure 2.11.
Obviously, when choosing shopping facilities for regular visits, convenience plays a decisive role: proximity to home or being on the path of the “pendulum” flow from work to home, as well as the speed of making purchases. In this case, consumers are interested in meeting the daily needs of their household. As soon as shoppers have free time, they are more interested in getting more pleasure from shopping, seeing a greater variety of assortments and getting acquainted with new “advances of science, technology and economics” in the form of new products on store shelves. Therefore, those facilities that offer a wide and deep assortment have advantages (again, when we talk about assortment, we mean not only goods, but also services, entertainment, food, etc.), and a significant area is required to present a diverse assortment. The effect of concentrating assortment on a large area and creating attraction to this area today underlies the creation of concepts for large stores and shopping and entertainment complexes. This mathematical model was developed in the 20s of the 20th century and is called the “Reilly gravitational model” or “Reilly’s law of retail attraction”. Surely, Reilly's law is known to most readers (it is described in books on city economics, and we also discussed it in detail in our book “Design of Stores and Shopping Centers”). But for the convenience of readers, let us briefly recall the essence of Reilly’s law (Fig. 2.12). Each city has its own need for the amount of retail space: a small settlement requires very few square meters, a large one - accordingly, more. If you add up the retail space that small towns require and combine them, you can get a large trading city, which will attract residents of all small towns. Reilly's Law mathematically substantiates the attractiveness of large retail areas: larger cities and regions contain a larger number of stores and therefore attract buyers from different territories. The zones of influence of retail facilities are determined by a formula, depending on the distance between cities (districts, districts) and the number of people in these cities. Figure 2.12 shows two cities: Bolshegrad with a population of 150 thousand inhabitants, and Malgorod, where 50 thousand people live. The distance between the two cities is 4 km. Using Reilly's formula, you can determine the point of indifference - the place from which buyers do not care where to go for shopping, to Malgorod or to Bolshegrad. This point defines the zones of influence of cities and shopping facilities in them. The point of indifference is located at a distance of 2.5 km from Bolshegrad and 1.5 km from Malgorod. The large city of Bolshegrad will attract buyers from a distance one and a half times greater than Malgorod.
The factor of the size of the area (for trade, entertainment and leisure, catering and services) plays a key role in trade. In commercial practice, there are cases when a small object has a strong attraction, but these cases are isolated on the scale of each country and even the world. This picture can only be observed with small stores that offer truly unique products and items for collectors. This makes trade significantly different from other areas, for example, tourism and pilgrimage, where a small object can have a very strong attraction. An example is the Monastery of Santiago de Compostela in Spain, the third largest pilgrimage stream of the Shrine of Western Christendom. Streams of pilgrims to it, starting from the 11th century, were drawn from several European countries (Fig. 2.13), and in our days powerful streams from Latin America have been added to them.
With the opening of large shopping centers of regional significance, Russians were able to observe in practice the effect of Reilly's Law. Thus, residents of Obninsk (105.5 thousand people), a city in the Kaluga region, located 106 kilometers from Moscow in the south-west direction, quite regularly visit the Mega-Teply Stan shopping center, and residents of Tver (405, 6 thousand people) travel 167 kilometers from the north-west to get to the center of Mega-Khimki. In Tver, back in Soviet times, there were bus shopping tours for residents who did not have a car. In the morning, tourists loaded onto a comfortable bus, which took them to the entrance of one of the Moscow theaters for a morning or afternoon performance. Then the bus delivered them to GUM, TSUM or other popular department stores in the capital; after shopping, they threw bulky packages and bags into the cargo compartment and returned home for dinner. These tours have survived to this day, with the only difference being that they now take us to Mega.
The shape and size of a shopping center's coverage area in an area saturated with retail facilities depends on the size of competitors' shopping centers. Let's consider this effect using the classical Reilly formula (Fig. 2.14). Let’s assume that there is a regional shopping center with an area of 36,000 m2 on the territory, as well as four more shopping centers with different areas: one super-regional (144,000 m2), two district (4,000 and 9,000 m2), and one micro-district (1 500 m2). The zone of influence of a district shopping center is built according to the Reilly formula, and one can see how it is deformed, compressing in the direction where the large super-regional shopping center is located, and stretching in the direction of the smallest microdistrict center.
The distance between cities (and commercial facilities in them) determines the area of the territory they control. When a small settlement is located close to a large one, the influence zone of its shops and shopping centers is reduced. Figure 2.15 shows how, according to Reilly’s law, the zones of influence of shopping centers with the same area, located at different distances from a large city, can change. For example, shopping center No. 3 has an area that meets the needs of a population of 300,000 thousand people. If the city where shopping center No. 3 is located is located at a distance of 50 kilometers from a metropolis with a population of 10 million, then the area of influence of shopping center No. 3 will be 6 times larger than when the city is located at a distance of 15 kilometers from the metropolis.
In its modern form, Reilly’s formula is applied as follows: instead of the population of cities, the area of shopping centers is substituted, and the calculation determines the points of indifference and the boundaries of the zones of influence of shopping centers. Then the resulting scheme of shopping zones is superimposed on a map with car accessibility zones (on this map, the boundaries of the zones are isochrones, points of equal temporal accessibility to the shopping center). The combined diagram makes it clear in which areas of the city the zones of influence of shopping centers intersect, and where the main struggle for visitors can unfold.
The distance that customers are able to travel to a store and a shopping center is to a certain extent related to the gain: the ratio of the cost of the trip and the result obtained in the form of goods purchased at competitive prices, the pleasure of walking through shopping galleries, contemplating shop windows and pleasantly murmuring fountains in the atriums , delicious food in a restaurant or at a food court, the long-awaited satisfaction of your wife from a purchased fur coat or handbag. The cost factor when making purchases is taken into account in the “sales area analysis method” of Christhaler-Losch. The price of a product for the buyer is the sum of the selling price and the cost of traveling to the store, and the store's sales market will cover the territory where the total price "price + costs" will be lower than in other stores. In modern society, it makes sense to consider not only the actual money spent on gasoline or a ticket on public transport, but also the time spent by the buyer: people whose work is more expensively paid are more sensitive to the loss of time. Buying a product at a low price in a distant store may end up being less profitable than buying the same product at a higher price in a store located close to home. For example, a summerhouse in a small hardware store near a holiday village costs 6,000 rubles, delivery is free, and in the construction market - 5,000 rubles, that is, the absolute retail price on the market is 1,000 rubles lower. But at the same time, when buying a gazebo at the market, you have to pay 1,500 rubles for delivery, and the buyer spends 120 rubles on gasoline on the way to the market and back. As a result, the buyer purchases the goods at a price of 6,620 rubles, i.e. more expensive than in your own village, and it also wastes two extra hours of time. But if the buyer bought two gazebos at the market or loaded other building materials into the car, he would receive savings from a trip to a remote retail outlet. Cost theory explains why the buyer agrees to make small purchases in “convenience stores” at higher prices, but for large purchases he goes to a hypermarket or market (Figure 2.16).
The principle of outflow of customers from local stores to larger cities and attraction from small settlements applies to all cities. Even cities with a population of 60-150 thousand people themselves are a small center of attraction for residents of surrounding villages, villages, and towns. It is no coincidence that trade intensifies near the railway station and bus station. When planning the construction of large retail facilities, it is necessary to take into account the possibility of attracting buyers from adjacent areas. The reserves for attracting buyers to the city depend on the population density in rural areas and the ratio of urban and rural populations. As an example, consider two Russian cities - Smolensk and Cheboksary. Smolensk is the regional center, Cheboksary is the capital of the Republic of Chuvashia. Today, these cities are united by the existing potential for the construction of new retail facilities. The potential is evidenced by the population of these cities (316.52 and 456.05 thousand inhabitants) and the potential for saturation of space in shopping centers. In Smolensk the saturation is very low (67.6 m2 of the total area of the shopping center per 1000 inhabitants as of 01/01/2009), in Cheboksary it is significantly higher, but still not enough for the city scale (256 m2 per 1000 inhabitants, also as of 01/01/2009) . True, the income level of city residents is still low, but, as we noted earlier, the income situation may change in the future.
Reserves for attracting buyers to cities
| SMOLENSK | CHEBOKSARY | |
|---|---|---|
| City population (as of 01/01/2009) | 316.52 thousand people. | 456.05 thousand people |
| Population density | In the Smolensk region 19.9 people/km² | In the Republic of Chuvashia 70.5 people/km² |
| Share of urban population | 71,4% | 61,0 % |
| Number of cities and large urban-type settlements (over 5 thousand inhabitants) within a 1-hour drive | 9 | 8 |
| of which cities with a population of over 30 thousand inhabitants | 1 | 2 |
| Population in cities and large urban-type settlements within a 1-hour drive radius | 96.6 thousand people | 198.9 thousand people |
| Total population within a 1 hour driving radius | 118 thousand people | 289 thousand people |
As can be seen from the table, the difference of almost three times between the total population within an hour's drive to Smolensk and Cheboksary is caused by a significant difference in the density of the rural population and the number of small villages, villages and towns. Shopping centers in cities of regions with low population density, for example, cities of the Russian North, Siberia, the Far East, and most of Kazakhstan, have very insignificant reserves for attracting regular customers. In the capital of Karelia, Petrozavodsk (population 269.2 thousand people as of 01/01/2009), the population density is 4 people/km², and the real reserves of buyers from the nearest settlements do not exceed 50 thousand people.
Even more indicative is the example of two small countries comparable in total population and the population of the capitals - Armenia and Mongolia:
The population in small settlements an hour's drive from Yerevan is 912 thousand people, from Ulaanbaatar - less than 60 thousand people. This determines the difference in the size of large shopping and entertainment complexes of metropolitan and even in this case national importance, as well as the size of the areas of anchor tenants in them.
Types of Retail Markets in Small Towns: Protected and Exposure to Large Cities
With increasing competition and saturation in major cities, developers and retailers are starting to look at smaller cities. The development of million-plus cities is followed by the development of “second echelon” cities (500-900 thousand people), then regional centers with a population of 300-500 people, and only then the process reaches small cities - with a population of 50 to 150 thousand people. There are a lot of completely free niches in these cities. There is a clear shortage of leisure facilities and, although the basic needs of city residents are satisfied, there is a shortage in a number of product areas. There are few modern shopping facilities; the average indicator of space saturation in modern shopping centers (rather, they can be called new, recently built, but not always modern) at the beginning of 2009 was in the range of 30-60 m2 per 1000 inhabitants, only in a few cities reaching values of 100 m2 per 1000 inhabitants.
Depending on how far a small city is from a large city, the type of market is determined: protected from competition from enterprises in a large city or exposed to competition. In this case, not only the distance in kilometers is important, but also the travel time to a large city, which depends on the condition of the roads and geographical location. For example, in areas of Northwestern Russia, weather conditions can make it difficult to travel between cities in the winter, and even in winter and autumn, people are less willing to travel long distances due to rain, slush, fog and strong winds. Let us formulate the features of two types of local markets in small cities (population up to 150 thousand people):
1) “Protected market”. The distance to a regional or regional center with a population of over 300 thousand people is more than 1.5 hours by car. These travel times mean that residents can only make periodic trips to a major city. If the journey to a big city by car takes more than 3 hours (for example, in the autumn-winter period with bad weather conditions and road conditions), this means that going to a large city for one day is tiring. You can, of course, have time to do some shopping and have fun at the mall and return home in the evening. But such a trip cannot be called a vacation. Indeed, when you have to get up at dawn, push half-asleep children into the car, quickly find all the necessary goods and argue about purchasing unnecessary things, stand in line at the food court and end the day to the roar of a roller rink or disco - for adult family members this is not a vacation, but rather , work lasting two shifts... You can only relax and make purchases over the weekend. This means you have to think about where to spend the night and leave your car, and a hotel requires additional costs. Therefore, the majority of residents of a small town make such trips infrequently, and residents buy in their city not only goods of frequent and periodic demand, but also larger goods of occasional and special demand (for example, outerwear made of leather and fur, household appliances, furniture, goods for interior). Typically, the number of residents of a small city who make regular trips to large cities does not exceed 20%, and this proportion depends on the income level in the city and the number of people with upper-middle and high incomes. Wealthy city residents are not satisfied with the supply in the place where they live - the city may not have the usual brands of food, drinks and care products - and they can buy even frequently needed goods in large cities.
In cities with a protected market, as a rule, federal or regional networks are poorly represented. The most common formats of large operators are a food discounter, a convenience store (household chemicals and household goods, perfumes). Even chain stores of household appliances sometimes do not reach these markets due to logistical difficulties. The ability of local entrepreneurs to develop business in the city is limited, and usually entrepreneurs have no more than four or five stores, which is enough to cover all parts of a small city. Local chains and independent stores are also developing in small formats; the saturation of retail space can be quite high, but the level of technology is in most cases low. The saturation of small shops depends on the work of the city-forming enterprise - if things at the enterprise are not going very well, city residents trade more actively. A characteristic phenomenon for many protected markets is that there is a shortage of rental space in good areas. The areas that are rented out are mainly located on the first floors of buildings (reconstruction of apartments, former Soviet amenities, cafes) and free-standing pavilions. The most popular retail facilities where space is leased - a city department store, a market - are usually completely occupied, and rotation of tenants is observed only in the case of high rental rates. New shopping centers in small towns are most often built and reconstructed by representatives of local businesses; these centers have a small area (up to 2000 - 3000 m²) and are rented out in small units.
The main problem when building new retail facilities in such cities is difficulties in attracting operators, problems with logistics, and remoteness from other large populated areas. Typically, chain operators open stores located close to each other to make it convenient to deliver and control the operation of the stores, and due to the distance they may not be interested in a given city. Interest in the city of networks is also influenced by the level of income of city residents, which depends on the work of city-forming enterprises.
In the protected market of cities with a population of 60-150 thousand people, traders of goods of the main type of demand, as well as periodic ones, feel comfortable. Food and entertainment enterprises are doing well, corresponding to the scale of the city and covering the middle and low-income segment of the population (including young people). There is potential for the opening of modern retail facilities that will have urban significance: shopping centers or separately located stores of modern formats (a department store for children's goods, household appliances, household goods, books and school supplies). Shopping centers can have a rental area of no more than 5000-6000 m2, and anchor tenants can have a retail area of no more than 1000-1500 m2, which in a large city would correspond to the district type. But they will attract buyers from all over the city due to gains in trading technology and design. Modern facilities will primarily displace outdated technologies (counter trade and low-quality retail real estate), so they will be able to successfully earn money even with a limited population.
A market influenced by a large city. The distance to the regional center or a large city in the region is less than 1.5 hours by car, and residents of a small city have the opportunity to travel there regularly. The outflow of shoppers to large cities on weekends is inevitable. There will be purchases of periodic and special demand goods, all fashion goods. Residents will also travel to large cities and shopping and entertainment complexes to spend leisure time, visit food establishments, entertainment, and culture.
The development of modern technology in such cities occurs at a faster pace, since examples of “cutting-edge” stores and shopping centers are nearby and merchants can study them regularly. Buyers are also becoming more sophisticated and demanding. In small cities located close to large ones, there is better coverage by network operators and a higher level of local establishments. Competition forces local merchants to be on their toes, because with poor performance of stores and the short-sighted policies of retail real estate owners (“where will our customers go from the submarine…”) demand for even consumer goods may go to large cities. A particular danger for trade in small towns are large stores where you can buy frequently needed goods at low prices - hypermarkets, cash & carry stores, chain stores with a “price” concept (hardware supermarket, DIY, cheap department store for clothes, children's goods). They can be anchor tenants of shopping centers in a large city or be separately located. For example, the opening of the Globus hypermarket in the town of Shchelkovo near Moscow dealt a serious blow to the city's food trade. To get a sense of the shock that local trade experienced, here is the following fact: at two o’clock on Saturday, a supermarket with a sales area of 600 m2 served only the 79th customer... Residents of towns and settlements within a radius of 50 kilometers also became regular visitors to the large hypermarket, and changes in trade have already affected the whole area.
The types of markets described above are typical not only for Russia, but also for other countries. A comprehensive assessment of a city’s market includes, in addition to the type of market, indicators of population income, level of competition and reserves for attracting visitors from surrounding areas. We will tell you more about the analysis methodology in the next chapter, but now we will give examples of Russian cities with different types of markets (note: the income level of residents is divided into three ranges relative to the average level in the Russian Federation):
| CITY | POPULATION AS OF 01/01/2008 (THOUSAND PEOPLE) | RESERVES FOR ATTRACTING VISITORS FROM SURROUNDING TERRITORIES (THOUSAND PEOPLE) | TYPE OF RETAIL MARKET | POPULATION INCOME | LEVEL OF COMPETITION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEFTEKAMSK, Bashkortostan | 118,3 | 43,2 | Protected market | Above average | Average |
| ROSSOSH, Voronezh region | 64,1 | 92,5 | Protected market | Short | High |
| BELORETSK, Bashkortostan | 68,8 | 36,4 | Average | Short | |
| GELENDZHIK, Krasnodar region | 52,63 | 34,7 | Market influenced by a large city | Average | Above average |
The city of Gelendzhik, shown in the table, is an example of several types of flows. Residents of the city regularly go shopping to Novorossiysk, where it takes about an hour to get there, and more often have fun there, since entertainment in their city has already become boring. And residents of Novorossiysk, a port and working city, regularly visit entertainment venues, cafes and restaurants in Gelendzhik, because there is more entertainment at the popular resort, and the atmosphere of the city itself is completely different. The most significant flow is seasonal tourism. During the holiday season, the population in Gelendzhik increases significantly. Thus, in 2006, the number of temporary population during the peak occupancy period of the resort amounted to 163.7 thousand people, of which 36.7 thousand were the organized temporary population (vacationers in sanatorium-resort institutions, living in hotels) and 127 thousand - unorganized (living in private sector and temporary service personnel). It is not surprising that a significant part of trade is aimed at tourists, and the city's large shopping centers work mainly for them, offering light industrial goods that are in demand during the holiday period. Seasonal population increases are typical for tourist and holiday areas; moreover, the temporary population in holiday and tourist areas is richer than the local population. This must be taken into account when determining the number of retail spaces in the city.
The population size, density, and flows of people are formed and modified in the process of development of the territory. Now let's move on to urban development models and consider what opportunities open up for new construction within each model.
Urban development models
Over the last century, the topic of the future appearance of large cities has occupied the minds of architects and economists, politicians and public figures, science fiction writers and free-thinking representatives of culture. In Russia, forecasts were primarily made regarding Moscow, the capital, a large metropolis of global importance. There are several expert opinions regarding the development of Moscow. Conversations about the territorial merger of Moscow and the region have become more frequent. Some points of view inspire outright pessimism: the Mexico City scenario could be repeated in Moscow, with a gigantic scale of uncontrolled development that is heterogeneous in its functions and positioning. There are also futuristic projects for creating a giant metropolis “Moscow - St. Petersburg”... In this metropolis there will be islands of well-being in the form of large and well-appointed atrium office, retail and shopping and entertainment buildings, with their own microclimate and air and water purification systems. And in the historical part of the cities, street retail areas will be preserved, closely linked with atrium and arcade-type buildings. With this development forecast, almost all of Russia's retail trade will be concentrated around Moscow and St. Petersburg. The key point in this futuristic project: Moscow of the future is presented as a city not for all consumers, but mainly for the successful and rich.
Now the process of development of Moscow as a metropolis is taking place with the attraction of a large number of migrants from Russia and abroad. Retail trade is developing in various formats, including trade and services for representatives of national diasporas. But affordable stores are not as common as, for example, in St. Petersburg. The ideas of a capital for those who deserve it were very popular in the first half of the 1990s, but to this day they retain their vitality. This development option provides for the removal of industries that are undesirable for the city and the squeezing of low-income Muscovites into the region. For example, the resettlement of people on the waiting list into multi-storey buildings in the nearest Moscow region - there have been such examples in recent years. According to a number of experts, in this case the city intends to get rid of its “problems” by transferring some of them to the region, and the region could turn into huge residential areas and an industrial zone. There is a certain attractiveness for Moscow: the city will have tracts of land liberated from the “Khrushchevs” and “Brezhnevkas”, on which it will be possible to create comfortable residential complexes, the wealthiest population will remain in Moscow, and the same rich or well-off people will be attracted from the regions and abroad. At the same time, “price” stores can be moved to the outskirts so as not to undermine the high prices in the city. Let us note that the limiting factor for the implementation of this development scenario is the danger of social unrest in the capital.
Let's go back to today. We can say that since the country entered the era of a market economy, Moscow and other large cities in Russia began to develop according to the scenarios that were described in the first half of the twentieth century. Many cities in developed countries have gone this way. The desire of wealthy city dwellers to live closer to nature was described by the Chicago School back in 1916-1933, in the Park-Burgess theory of concentric circles (Fig. 2.17). According to this theory, the city center develops as a commercial, public and leisure zone, and residential areas with the most dense buildings, crowded settlements and poor living conditions arise around it. These areas become of little interest to high-income residents, and low-level service personnel from the central zone remain in them. They can get to their place of work on foot, spending little even on public transport. Further from the center are residential areas for the working class, behind them are housing for the middle class, and on the outskirts, on the border with forests, fields and other natural beauties, the wealthiest members of society settle. Our compatriots have also always strived for nature: in pre-revolutionary Russia, nobles and landowners spent the summer on country estates, and in the twentieth century people also wanted to get out of the city and into nature. But in order to maintain facilities outside the city, you need infrastructure and a social network, which did not exist in Russia, and year-round living was expensive (especially in the Russian winter). Therefore, the phenomenon of dachas arose: cottages and mansions in areas with poorly developed infrastructure, typical seasonal housing in Soviet times. And now there is a process of transition from seasonal to permanent housing close to nature, but many cottages can only be fully used as seasonal housing and weekend housing. Why? Obviously, the path to the place of work, study, etc. takes too much time and effort. Here it is appropriate to recall the Harris-Ullman model (Figure 2.18), which speaks of the need to create new business districts surrounded by housing for the middle class and wealthy people.
Sectoral models of urban organization in Russia have been known since the times of Veliky Novgorod. In Fig. Figure 2.19 shows Hoyt's (1939) sectoral model. This model attempts to create a harmonious juxtaposition of poor and rich residential areas, effectively locating a business district where the management of the city and its enterprises is concentrated. Industrial areas are surrounded by cheap housing. This improves the transport situation in the city and ensures uninterrupted delivery of labor to enterprises even in the event of war or a natural disaster. Nowadays, it is enough to look at the map of any Russian city with a radial-ring planning scheme to be convinced of the spread of this model in Russia. Most similar to Hoyt's model is modern Moscow. But in other cities of Russia, the western areas of the city are the most environmentally friendly, since the location of industrial enterprises took into account the wind rose and the predominance of their western direction.
The first stage of territory development is the determination of the functional purpose of city districts and their image in the future. Then a selection is made of specific territories that need to be developed or changes made to them. As you know, there are three options for developing territories:
- “Spot development” on small vacant plots in the existing structure of the area.
- Transformation of significant areas of the city, changing their functional purpose. First of all, this applies to industrial zones. Traditionally, industrial buildings were located far from the center, but cities grew, and areas that were previously considered the outskirts became central. For most industrial enterprises, location in the city center hinders the development of modern technologies and complicates supply and logistics. And for the city, in turn, it is unprofitable that valuable areas that could be used with great success for other functions are occupied by industry. Therefore, the process of moving enterprises outside the city limits is going on all over the world. Sometimes production is generally transferred to the territory of other countries, strengthening other functions in the city: business, public, shopping and entertainment, tourism.
- Development of new territories - vacant lands within the city and beyond. The development of vacant land is only possible with serious investments in the infrastructure of the territory. With this option, the largest and most significant real estate objects are created.
Development in the existing structure of the area
In many large Russian cities, Moscow has certain restrictions on territorial resources for the construction of new residential areas and retail real estate. For example, in the capital in 2002, a project called “New Moscow Ring” was announced, which envisaged the construction of over 60 high-rise multifunctional complexes connected to the Third Transport Ring. Initially, architects and investors had doubts about this project, and in the fall of 2007, these doubts began to be shared by the official authorities. On the one hand, high-rise buildings in the center have a number of advantages. When constructing high-rise buildings, the share of land cost in the cost of square meters of real estate decreases (Fig. 2.20). Multi-storey buildings make it possible to justify the costs of purchasing land plots in the most advantageous places - in the city center and planning centers of districts (Fig. 2.21), where land is the most expensive. Therefore, in many US cities, the main multi-storey buildings are concentrated in the city center, and the number of storeys gradually decreases towards the outskirts. In large Russian cities, the opposite picture is observed. This is the “legacy” of the Soviet period. In the USSR, there was no need to develop zones of a multi-storey business center, the commercial center of the city - after all, there was no commerce in those days, and administrative buildings were mainly located in the center. The share of people employed in industry was much higher than in management; management had a sectoral structure, and management structures were located in multi-storey buildings on the territory of production enterprises. Huge research institutes and design bureaus also gravitated towards enterprises and were not located in the center. Therefore, new residential areas on the outskirts had the highest number of storeys (Figure 2.22).
On the other hand, the projects for the construction of multifunctional high-rise buildings in the central part of Moscow had a number of disadvantages. The city at this stage of development was not ready for the appearance of a large number of skyscrapers, which would sharply increase the load on roads and networks. Then, the condition of the soil in many areas of Moscow is such that with a very high number of storeys, there is a disproportionate increase in the cost of foundation work, and many payback calculations are “not liked” by investors. It is now quite simple and cheap to build houses up to 18 floors; further increases in cost occur due to more complex structures, special engineering systems (for example, water supply and heating), higher requirements for vertical communications, and a greater loss of usable space due to these communications. The opinion of a certain part of the future residents and tenants of the complexes was also taken into account: for them, it was not skyscrapers that were more attractive, but residential complexes with the usual number of storeys, that is, development not in height, but in width. To do this, you need areas of sufficient area.
The size of plots in established urban areas also creates problems during the construction of shopping centers of regional significance (not only in Moscow, but also in other cities). In many cases, the site can only accommodate a multi-story center with multi-level, underground or subdivided parking. The costs of constructing such centers will be higher than one-story ones, and the traffic patterns of visitors within the center will be more complex. Therefore, lot sizes in existing developments limit the scale of commercial real estate projects.
City residents often speak negatively about new residential buildings and complexes integrated into the existing structure. Current standards for building density and other indicators of modern housing do not have time to reflect all the realities of our time. Even the definition of infill development has not yet been properly formulated. There are officials who are not interested in bringing the standards to modern requirements: after all, this situation allows them to “effectively resolve all issues”... Large developers manage to bypass the standard values, and housing density increases significantly. Sometimes infill development is reminiscent of the clumsy Communist attempt of the 1920s to solve the housing problem by densifying existing residential real estate. The negative aspects of infill development are known to everyone: infill development worsens the environmental situation, the quality of living in existing houses decreases (insolation, ventilation and associated air pollution in the city). The load on the existing infrastructure, which is not designed for multi-storey complexes, increases - roads, heat, gas and electricity networks. Densification has swallowed up almost all free areas and reserve areas in the central part of Moscow, and that is why there are practically no areas where office or ride-hailing parking could be organized, as in large US cities. Residential or office complexes have already been built on these sites. The possibilities for using underground space in the city of Moscow are very limited due to complex geology, the presence of metro structures, a huge number of underground communications, and government communication lines. This is especially true for the city center. Therefore, even in luxury buildings, the number of parking spaces for residents is insufficient. In general, many residential complexes in the city center do not meet the comfort requirements that apply to luxury housing: isolation, comfortable courtyard area, landscaping and landscaping, children's and outdoor sports grounds, convenient children's educational institutions, sufficient parking for residents and guest parking. How many elite residential complexes in Moscow can you name with a richly landscaped courtyard and guest parking?
The resources of free land in the existing residential and public areas of large cities are, if not completely exhausted, then very, very limited. A much more significant resource in terms of area is represented by urban areas occupied by industry.
Transformation of the city's industrial areas
Interest in the transformation of industrial territories in large cities of the world has been observed since the 80s of the last century, but the first reconstruction projects were local in nature: a separate building of a plant or factory was rebuilt, occupying a small area, but the general purpose of the territory did not change. On the site of former factories, business centers, shopping centers and multifunctional complexes arose, for example, Mode-Centers-Berlin, Germany (design bureau “Nalbach und Nalbach”, 1996-98), business center in Montrouge, France (architect Renzo Piano, 1986), International Design Center in New York, USA (design bureau "Gwathmey, Siegel and Associates", 1997), multifunctional complex Union-Loft in Frankfurt am Main, Germany (architect M.A. Landes, 1997 -2000).
At the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries, the reconstruction of industrial areas began to take on a large-scale nature, and entire areas occupying a significant area were subject to changes. Former industrial zones were transformed into zones of business activity and public life, comfortable residential areas with all the elements of modern infrastructure. Among the largest urban planning transformations in Europe, we can note the reconstruction of the Paddington area in London (the total area of the redevelopment sites is 32.4 hectares) and the reconstruction of the port area in Hamburg (the creation of a new HafenCity area on an area of 155 hectares). Territories occupied by large transport facilities, warehouse infrastructure and industrial enterprises are completely changing their functional purpose and are being transformed into comfortable residential and business areas with luxury apartments, ultra-modern office complexes, boulevards, embankments and squares for walking and, of course, galleries of shops.
In Moscow, a centralized program for the redevelopment of industrial areas was approved in 2004, and the area of industrial zones that are already being reconstructed or may undergo reconstruction in the near future is 1,668 hectares. In terms of reconstruction area, Moscow projects are even larger-scale than European ones. The largest projects in terms of converted area under this program:
- “New Center” (“Big City”), the built-up area is 1000 hectares, 333 industrial enterprises were located on it, including three large factories;
- Industrial zone "Paveletskaya", area - 213 hectares;
- “New territory of Moscow State University”, area - 213 hectares;
- MIBC "Moscow City", area - 100 hectares.
The area of all territories occupied by industry in Moscow was about 20,500 hectares or 20% of the city’s territory, and, according to the General Plan for the Development of Moscow, it is planned to reduce it to 15,000 hectares, that is, about 5% of the city’s territory will be allocated for new construction. These are already significant figures compared to the areas of free plots for construction in existing residential and public areas.
However, the process of transforming industrial areas is associated with a number of problems and limiting factors. Firstly, the relocation of large production facilities is fraught with social consequences for the city, a serious change in “pendulum” flows and an increase in the load on the transport network. Especially when jobs are not created for former employees of enterprises in the same territory. In the USSR, many residential complexes and entire neighborhoods were built next to new large enterprises and were intended for people working at enterprises. Today, many projects for the reconstruction of industrial areas assume that completely different groups of the population will be attracted to these areas of the city, and new residential areas, of course, will not be enough to meet the needs of new places of employment - business and administrative complexes. Therefore, in Moscow the issue of transport accessibility and employment in the manufacturing sector will become even more pressing. This is one of the main problems that arise during the reconstruction of industrial zones. Note that the need to reconstruct industrial zones abroad was associated both with the growing needs of cities for residential and public construction, and with changes in the production base itself. In a number of cases, production facilities were not liquidated, but only changed location. Production was moved to new sites that were more convenient from a logistics point of view, to places with cheaper labor resources, or to places remote from areas that were supposed to be made more environmentally friendly. Such sites were found in the same country or in other countries (Asia or Latin America). The question of reconstructing the port in Hamburg arose because technology had changed: universal containers appeared, and multi-storey warehouses, the famous German “sparhaus”, spread over a large area of the port area, became unclaimed. And the Paddington Freight Terminal, opened in 1801, had served the transport of goods (mainly coal and hay) along the Grand Union Canal for two centuries, and the logistics also required a modern approach. Therefore, ports and terminals were moved to more suitable locations, making way for public areas. In Russia, the key factor determining the need for reconstruction of industrial zones was the high cost of land inside the city, especially in the central part. Considerations such as environmental, sanitary and hygienic requirements, aesthetic requirements and the preservation of cultural and historical heritage certainly existed, but they still followed commercial ones. Some industrial enterprises successfully transferred their main production base from the center of Moscow to other cities (for example, the Red October confectionery factory, the Paris Commune shoe factory), but a significant number of enterprises were closed due to bankruptcy, unprofitability, outdated technologies and wear and tear of the main funds. According to the Moscow Department of Science and Industrial Policy, in 2006, about 24% of the city's manufacturing enterprises were unprofitable. It can be assumed that in the process of reconstructing industrial zones, the city will receive new modern public and residential areas, but will irrevocably lose a fifth of its production. A similar situation is observed in other countries of the former USSR, for example, in the capital of Armenia, Yerevan, about 80% of industrial enterprises built during the Soviet period were liquidated, including large plants and factories of all-Union significance, providing work for a significant number of citizens.
The high level of costs for relocating enterprises to new sites is the second factor holding back large-scale reconstruction projects of industrial areas. In addition to the direct costs of relocation, there are added the costs of finding suitable sites, coordinating and resolving complex legal issues, as well as compensation that the Moscow authorities justifiably demanded from developers for the “loss of the city’s industrial potential.” Another “brakes” for the development of industrial territories are legal difficulties: the multiplicity of plot owners and asset owners in the industrial zone, the differing interests of these owners. There are two known ways to solve this problem. The first is the consolidation of the efforts of the owners, this path was used during the construction of the Upper Trading Rows, the current GUM in Moscow, and we already talked about it in Chapter 1. But at that time, the consolidation went in parallel with administrative coercion: all the old shops were forcibly closed, and it was It was announced that if one of the owners does not participate in the project, then the land on which the shops stand will be practically requisitioned for the benefit of the city, bought at a price unfavorable for the owner. The second method is the concentration of territory in the hands of one owner, consolidation of plots - very expensive for the developer and difficult to implement. Using only commercial methods without administrative coercion and assistance, it is almost impossible to develop an industrial territory with a “patchwork” of owners. Even if almost all the land is purchased, the owners of the last plots can inflate prices astronomically, creating restrictions on a large-scale project. This increases risks for the developer.
All these difficulties force us to pay attention to the third way - construction in new, free territories. The huge problem of many modern cities is pushing us towards this same path; their real headache is traffic congestion.
Features of city planning schemes and their impact on new construction
The increase in the number of cars and the subsequent deterioration in automobile accessibility seriously complicates life for residents of many large cities. The situation in both Russian capitals - Moscow and St. Petersburg - is close to a transport collapse. In 2008, before the New Year holidays, the capital's traffic police openly addressed motorists with a recommendation to go shopping in the Moscow region so that there would be at least some opportunity to drive in the center of the capital. The crisis that began in the fall of 2008 slightly relieved the congestion on the capital's roads, but gradually the situation began to return to its previous level. Traffic jams on almost all highways have exceeded the limit of patience, and every day it becomes more and more obvious that the methods proposed by the city authorities to correct the transport situation will not completely solve the problem. It is impossible to go back years and decades ago, when the need to build parking lots was chronically ignored, and the main commercial real estate facilities were concentrated in the city center. Understanding of the role of the car in a modern city in Russia is still late, and low parking standards for shopping and office centers cause bewilderment among specialists and indignation among buyers.
In the West, serious attention began to be paid to the supply of retail facilities in the city center and traffic flows back in the 30s of the last century. For example, architect Albert Speer's Berlin reconstruction project included large-scale underground parking and underground loading of goods. In the USSR, after the Great Patriotic War in Moscow, an attempt was made to get closer to the real requirements of “automobilization” in terms of garages, parking lots and the width of main highways (taking into account the possibility of expansion). The photograph shows an example of the Red Houses residential complex on Stroiteley Street in Moscow - one of the few complexes with spacious garages, built in the 50s for the Moscow scientific elite.
However, starting from the time of Nikita Sergeevich Khrushchev, a famous fighter against personal cars, attempts to equip housing, trade and entertainment with modern parking lots were put to death. It was proposed to replace personal cars with the enhanced development of public transport and taxis. When constructing residential and public blocks, the space within the block for travel and parking took into account the needs of the current period and was not at all designed for the future. In order to understand the severity of the situation, let's consider an example of a block in the Western District of Moscow, which is quite prosperous in terms of parking for personal cars (Fig. 2.23). Construction of this quarter began during Stalin's time and was finally completed in the early 70s. The area of the block is 60,168 m2, of which 10,455 m2 or 17.4% of the territory is accounted for by intra-block passages. On the area of the block there are 9 residential buildings with 7-12 floors, in which there are about 1064 apartments, in addition, typical infrastructure facilities are concentrated within the block (kindergarten, school, playgrounds and stadium). For residents of the houses, organized ground parking and 2 underground garages are provided, which were put into operation in 1977, that is, at the stage when the settlement of the quarter was long completed. The total parking area for residents of the houses is 3,500 m2 or 5.8% of the area of the block, and they are designed for only 138 parking spaces. It turns out that only 13% of residents can park their cars in organized parking lots, if we assume that there is one car per apartment. The resources of intra-block driveways for use as parking lots are also very limited. It is not surprising that owners of personal cars had to selflessly fight to get places in garages, and a Soviet film, Eldar Ryazanov’s famous comedy “Garage,” was even entirely devoted to this problem. Today, when the old “horseless” generation is being replaced by a generation of modern people, and the number of cars is steadily approaching the number of adult family members, the severity of the problem of parking in residential areas has increased significantly. Of course, it was not possible to resist the realities of motorization. According to unofficial estimates, the increase in the number of cars in 2006-2007 reached 180,000 - 200,000 cars per year. And according to official reports, in 2007 the increase in motor transport in Moscow amounted to 150,000 vehicles, and about 120,000 parking spaces were put into operation in garages and parking lots. Even if the official data corresponds to reality (surely many Muscovite readers thought: “Where are these parking spaces?”), the numbers clearly indicate that the situation with accessibility could deteriorate catastrophically in the near future. No wonder. A car parked along the sidewalk reduces street traffic capacity by 800 cars per hour, and when parked at an angle or perpendicular to the sidewalk, this figure increases significantly. We have even heard such an assessment that the total length of cars in the city will soon exceed the length of the existing sidewalks - where then should office workers and residential residents park their cars?
Figure 2.24 shows a comparison of the share of the city territory occupied by the street and road network in Moscow and large cities of the world (based on the results of a study by M. Blinkin, head of the Research Institute of Transport and Road Facilities, published in April 2009). In the Russian capital, streets and roads occupy only 7% of the city's territory, three times less than in large European cities, and five times less than in the USA and Canada. Accordingly, the capacity of the urban transport network in Moscow is significantly lower, and solving the transport problem will be very difficult and time-consuming. The possibilities for reconstruction of territories and new construction are limited precisely because the transport network may not be able to withstand the load. Let's take a look at the numbers. More than 3 million families live in Moscow. If we assume that each family will have one car, then the required parking area for all these cars will be 75 square kilometers or about 7.5% of the city’s territory (according to parking calculation standards). That is, as much as the entire transport network now occupies in Moscow. Residents use cars to go to work, visit shops and places of leisure, go to educational institutions, etc. Therefore, let’s assume that each car has 2 permanent parking spaces (near home and work) and at least 1 place where it is parked from time to time (near a store, institute, clinic, etc.). Accordingly, for comfortable movement around the city and creating comfortable conditions in parking lots, 225 square kilometers of parking area will be required. Within the current boundaries of the city, on its existing territory, such parking areas are not available: to solve the problem, multiple underground and multi-level parking lots will be needed, and this is a very expensive pleasure. Domestic consumers are not ready to buy space at a high price: many believe that a garage should not be more expensive than a car.
A partial solution to the accessibility problem in Moscow (only partial) is the construction of new interchanges and highways, as well as interceptor parking lots. But these objects will not solve the problem of “pendulum” flows. One of the main reasons for such a serious transport situation in Moscow is the urban division into functional zones, the concentration of business life in the center while creating powerful remote “dormitory” areas. Every day hundreds of thousands of cars rush into the center, and the metro, trains, and buses are crowded with residents of the suburbs and residential areas. Many workers spend 3 to 5 hours on the road every day, which cannot but affect productivity and loyalty. There are very serious concerns that one of the most reliable means of transport today - the metro - will not cope with the increasing load. The urban development plans for Moscow and the Moscow region in the 80s included the continuation of metro lines to the cities of the nearest Moscow region. Today they no longer talk about this: with such a large population, most likely, we will have to look for new means of transport and new technologies.
A similar situation is observed in the second capital - St. Petersburg, as well as on a smaller scale in other large cities. The formation of traffic jams is enhanced by the radial-ring urban planning scheme, which was used in the planning of a number of modern Russian cities (Fig. 2.25). And, for example, in the USA at one time they preferred a lattice layout, when the streets are parallel to each other, and you can choose detour routes (Fig. 2.27). The largest cities in China also demonstrate an urban planning approach to solving the problem: the administrative capital of Beijing and the economic capital of Shanghai, and Moscow is a big loser in comparison. Three transport rings in Moscow compared to 6 in Beijing... To be fair, we note that the territories of Chinese capitals are much larger than the area of Moscow, and in large areas it is easier to solve the problem of integrated development of the territory than in conditions of an acute shortage of land resources (the area of Moscow is 1081 sq. km, the area of Beijing is 16,808 sq. km, Shanghai is 6,340 sq. km, city plans are shown in Figure 2.26 on the same scale). But the main difference is that in Chinese megacities the goal is to minimize pendulum flows. Many residential areas are being built simultaneously with office centers and shopping and entertainment centers, with a developed service sector and social facilities: modern sports and health complexes, educational and medical institutions. The proximity of residential areas to places of employment is one of the factors underlying the development of new territories, and such balanced development weakens pendulum flows. It’s scary to imagine what would happen if numerous residents of Beijing or Shanghai switched from bicycles to SUVs and executive cars, or at least to small cars... Along with the development of transport infrastructure, the authorities are restraining the pace of motorization of the population. Thus, in Shanghai there is an auction for the sale of car license plates that give the right to drive on the streets of the city, and the funds received from the auction are used for the development of roads, and the possibility of corruption by the traffic police (“jing cha”) in the distribution of license plates is eliminated.
How do city planning patterns affect trade and new construction? In the radial-ring scheme, the importance of the city center is still preserved, since the center is a point that is equally accessible from all areas; all the rays of the highways converge at it. Even if the role of trade in the center is reduced, it still remains a place where business, social, and cultural activity is concentrated. Opportunities for the development of full-fledged centers in each of the districts (along each of the radial highways) are limited due to transport accessibility. Transport problems cause localization and narrowing of trade areas of large retail facilities. Convenience stores are on the rise, and consumers will need a very strong advantage to travel to a far-flung store or shopping center. Due to problems with automobile accessibility and parking, distance selling has begun to gain momentum, creating competition for traditional retail. A lattice layout with additional diagonals or rings, firstly, improves transport accessibility in urban areas by providing motorists with several alternative routes. And secondly, it makes it possible to create several centers of similar importance in the city and distribute city flows more evenly.
Development of new territories
There are two main schemes for urban development: development along highways and development of the space between highways (Fig. 2.28). In the first option, the city can mechanically spread along existing roads. The distances over which city residents travel daily are increasing, connections between regions are weakening, and radial transport problems are becoming more acute.
Let's consider development opportunities using the example of the cities of Smolensk and Cheboksary; we have already talked about this pair of cities in this chapter. Figure 2.29 shows the main zones of dense multi-storey development in these cities and the corresponding zones of influence of shopping and entertainment centers of district importance. It’s immediately clear how many shopping centers of regional significance can operate without creating intense competition for each other. If the development of these cities in the future goes along the roads, then the traffic load will continue to fall on the key highways of the city, diverging from the center. A county shopping center that is currently designed to attract residents from two densely populated areas of the county may lose some of its attractiveness and retain shoppers in only one area.
A much more promising route is to develop land between built-up areas (Figure 2.30). The main advantage of this scheme is the damping of “pendulum” flows. When a city has a single center and a clear functional division into socio-cultural, trade, industrial and business, residential areas, this increases transport tension (Fig. 2.30-A). The creation of new trade and leisure centers in remote sections of existing transport routes (Fig. 2.30-B) solves the problem of supplying areas, but does not eliminate the problem of “pendulum” flows and the load on the main transport arteries of the city. In Fig. 2.30-B shows the creation of multifunctional new areas: in addition to housing, trade and public functions, places of employment are created in them for residents of the local market. This urban planning solution is used, for example, in the long-term planning of large cities in China. When areas between existing areas develop, the urban structure gradually approaches a “grid”. Transport routes are shortened, radial highways are unloaded, and the situation is improving. And sites for housing, trade, business and small industries are modern and meet the requirements of each function. A similar solution was envisaged in the urban planning plan of Moscow in 1971, but, unfortunately for many Muscovites, this concept was abandoned; activity continued to concentrate in the center and along highways.
Additional connections between urban areas allow the formation of new activity nodes (Figure 2.31) and the construction of retail facilities on these sites.
There is a lot of land in Russia, but land for construction is a plot plus roads to it plus infrastructure (Fig. 2.32). If the infrastructure is not developed to the required extent, then there will be a shortage of sites suitable for construction. With insufficient development of infrastructure and its deterioration, the population in small settlements decreases, and life in them becomes more difficult. When there is no central heating in a populated area, there are interruptions in the supply of electricity and water, driving on bad roads with potholes that are difficult to pass during heavy rains and heavy snowfalls, people begin to move to those areas where these issues have been successfully resolved. In places with poorly developed or poorly maintained infrastructure, it is difficult to develop production, trade, tourism and any economic activity in general. And with the development of infrastructure, there are more free sites for construction and more opportunities for organizing any business. The site must be provided with utilities and have organized exits from the main highway and convenient approaches to the site.
In Russia, new infrastructure was built in a clearly insufficient volume in the post-Soviet period, and the old infrastructure was exploited, including the road system and networks. There are few vacant plots with developed infrastructure, and officials play a large role in their distribution. They take advantage of the shortage of good plots of land and often give them to their trusted companies, or sell them for big money. In addition, there is no real competition between energy and water suppliers, and in the case of development of a site without communications, the fee for their connection may be unreasonably high. Insufficient development of new infrastructure is one of the problems in the development of new lands, and therefore many developers are afraid to enter new territories. The developer cannot solve the problem of developing new lands on his own; this is a task that is solved at the state or at least regional level.
Another limitation for new construction is the complexity of the procedure for changing the functional purpose of the land. This process is slow, there are many uncertainties, and there are people (including officials) who benefit from opposing the changes. Although there are positive aspects in the current laws and regulations - for example, countering the avalanche of seizures, speculation, forced bankruptcy of enterprises when dealing with agricultural and industrial lands - but in addition to restrictive measures there must be a development program. Earlier we talked about the program for the reconstruction of industrial zones in Moscow. Similar programs are now in great demand for suburban areas and promising agricultural land.
At further stages of development of the territory, high-quality infrastructure means not only networks and roads, but also supplies for the inhabitants of the territory: trade and services, entertainment and leisure, educational and medical institutions, etc.
Three-level system of territory coverage. Cellular structures in the city and uniformity of coverage by retail enterprises.
A well-developed territory has a three-level system of covering trade and various services enterprises (Figure 2.33). Almost all readers are familiar with it - if not as specialists, then certainly as consumers - since this system is traditionally used to plan the supply of territories. The three-level scheme presents different formats of enterprises that satisfy different types of demand for goods and services:
1st level - Microdistrict type. Satisfying basic, urgent needs - for goods and services of frequent demand and emergency demand. The demand is satisfied by small stores in which consumers can find an assortment of frequently purchased goods, provide for themselves and their household in the near future, but without any special frills or variety. Food, service, education, etc. have a similar offer at this level. For example, primary needs in education are satisfied by a secondary school, in medical services - a first-aid post with a general practitioner (or even a paramedic) and a nurse.
2nd level - District type. Satisfying, in addition to urgent needs, also periodically arising needs, greater variety and better quality of offer. The assortment becomes wider and deeper: goods (services) of periodic demand are added, i.e. new groups and positions in existing groups. The size of stores and shopping centers is increasing. Food, entertainment and other services at this level are also of higher quality and more varied. In the educational sphere, colleges and schools, specialized courses are appearing, in medicine - accordingly, a district clinic with several doctors practicing in various fields of medicine.
3rd level - District, city type. To goods and services of basic and periodic demand is added the satisfaction of episodic and special demand. In stores, consumers can find almost everything they need and even not really need, in cafes, restaurants and entertainment complexes - get more impressions and even more variety than at the previous level. Educational institutions at this level include institutions for training serious specialists (institutes, academies, etc.), and even those who have chosen rare specialties or a narrow field of knowledge can satisfy their need for training. In the medical field at this level, large hospitals appear, equipped with modern medical equipment and with experienced doctors, as well as many specialized centers offering health improvement and treatment in various ways, even the most exotic. A common principle for all areas is further expansion and deepening of the offered range compared to the previous level, plus further improvement of quality. Thus, luxury stores and clubs satisfy such needs as the need for self-expression, recognition of status, comfort and privacy.
If we depict the coverage zones of microdistrict, district and district shopping facilities, following the method of price and cost of visiting Christhaler-Losch (which we discussed above), then these zones will have the shape of regular hexagons. And the territory, evenly covered and saturated with supply facilities of all levels, will resemble a honeycomb. This Christhaler honeycomb structure is shown in Fig. 2.34. The coverage zones of objects of each next level are superimposed on the cells of the previous level, and the vertices of the polygons of the next level fall on the center of the previous one. That is, the trading areas of objects of each level do not overlap, and stores (food, service enterprises, etc.) of the same type do not create competition for each other. They are placed in strict accordance with the hierarchy, and the needs of all levels are met in the most optimal way on the territory.
Shown in Fig. 2.34 cellular structure is a kind of ideal situation when the territory has a very good and varied supply, but at the same time the enterprises in the territory practically do not compete with each other. At least in this scheme there is no competition between objects of the same type, at the same level of structure. In reality, the situation can develop according to different scenarios. Let's look at competition using the example of second-level, district-type shopping centers (Fig. 2.35). Let's assume that the city has 30 district centers, evenly covering the territory. If the population declines or its purchasing power decreases, new centers will not appear; on the contrary, some of the existing ones will die. The number of shopping centers will be reduced from 30 to 20, and the coverage areas of the remaining centers will increase (Fig. 2.35-A). If the situation with the demographics and income of city residents is favorable, then 80 district facilities will be able to “feed” on the territory. With uniformity of tenants, localization will occur (Fig. 2.35-B), the coverage areas of the centers will be reduced, and they will serve a smaller territory. Or their trading zones will intersect, literally intertwine (Fig. 2.35-B), which will lead to very high competition in the territory.
Determining the niches existing on the territory is nothing more than an analysis of the cells existing on the territory. And the correct choice of the format of retail facilities is filling empty cells, creating new facilities that improve supply and ensure satisfaction of needs of different levels. The absence of any levels opens up opportunities for new real estate properties and operators entering this territory. The success of a commercial facility is working not only at its own level of the cellular structure, but also participating in the work of other levels. For example, improving supply at the lower end of trade is not just about adding new stores. A second- or third-tier business might set up quick-service departments, designate checkout counters for shoppers with baskets rather than carts, open additional entrances to accommodate transit traffic, and move closer to homes or offices. Concentration, especially accompanied by the specialization of small and medium-sized retail units, is a way to begin work at a higher level of cellular organization of trade and services. A typical example of concentration is a market, specialization is a specialized shopping center. Such objects acquire third-level properties.
A trading facility is intended for people, so the closer it is to people, the better its future, the safer and more stable its functioning. There are cases when supply facilities are ahead of the development of the residential part of the territory and even form it themselves. But gross errors in understanding the cellular structure, the place of a retail facility in the hierarchy, inevitably entail punishment - failure and real monetary losses. Moreover, this applies not only to retail facilities, but also to enterprises that satisfy needs in other areas. In Soviet times, in the 70-80s, there was a project to build theaters in the “dormitory” areas of Moscow, and this project was curtailed due to the fact that even with the great love of Soviet people for theater and the lack of a variety of leisure alternatives, theaters on the outskirts poorly attended. It was an object of the third level of the cellular structure, placed on the territory of the second level, on a par with the Soviet Houses of Culture. Going to the theater is a real event, going out into the world, and people were not interested in visiting theaters in their own or someone else’s “dormitory” area. In addition, it took a very long time to get to the “sleeping” areas, especially from the opposite end of the city. But cinemas in Soviet times (in their then form) met demand at their level of the supply hierarchy, so they successfully opened and operated in all the “dormitory” areas of Moscow, while remote theaters withered and closed. Only a few of them survived into the 21st century, for example, the Theater of Mimicry and Gesture in the Izmailovo area, at the end of the metro line.
Prospects for the development of the territory using the example of the Moscow region
Perhaps, we can already say that the Russian capital is expecting the second redistribution of shopping places in this 10th anniversary and a change in customer flows on a city scale. By the mid-2000s, the role of the city center finally changed, and the main shopping activity and large retail facilities developed on the outskirts of Moscow and on the Moscow Ring Road. Today the process goes further - to the borders of the Central Ring Road, which was previously called the “small concrete ring” (in common parlance - “betonka”) and connected settlements and highways within a radius of about 30 km from the Moscow Ring Road. Simultaneously with new retail facilities, new residential buildings began to reach the near Moscow region, with a slight delay and in a smaller volume - office and hotel real estate. Some mistakes made in the capital, as well as the opportunities that this territory provides, forced developers to pay attention to this territory. Earlier we talked about the fact that the resources of free land within the capital are very limited, and the main resource consists of industrial zones that may undergo reconstruction. For the convenience of readers, we repeat the figures here: the area of industrial zones, which are planned for reconstruction in the near future, is 1,668 hectares, and the total area of industrial zones in Moscow is 20,500 hectares. If you go beyond the Moscow Ring Road, there are many times more land resources for development, and these are not “wild”, but densely built-up areas with an ever-increasing population. The price of land plots in the Moscow region is lower than in Moscow, and the price of land in the presence of airports, railway lines and highways creates unique opportunities for the development of this territory.
The growth in demand for residential real estate in the Moscow region and the gradual flow of demand from Moscow beyond its borders were facilitated by the deterioration of the transport and environmental situation in the capital, as well as very high housing prices. Let's remember advertising campaigns for residential real estate from the early 2000s until the 2008 crisis. Another rise in prices for apartments, posters with a climber climbing a rock on a rope, and the inscription “Even higher”; a cynical and provocative New Year's advertising campaign “New Year's in an adult way” with Santa Claus crossed out, reflecting the incomparability of fairy tales about affordable housing with reality... Prices in the capital soared to heights unattainable for most potential home buyers, and mass demand, supported by accumulated funds and the possibility of lending, came across an insurmountable obstacle. Demand, as you know, is a market concept. Despite the fact that in 2006-2008, stagnant sales on the Moscow residential real estate market were commented on as pent-up demand, many experts were well aware of the problem. Already in 2007, the small trickle of demand that had broken through from Moscow turned into a very full-flowing river: Muscovites rushed to the nearest Moscow region, to cottage-dacha spaces and to not very chic, but affordable high-rise buildings. In 2007, the volume of commissioned space in the Moscow region exceeded the figure for Moscow by almost 1.5 times (7.5 million m2, and in Moscow during the same period 4.8 million m2 were commissioned), and in the period January-September 2008 According to official sources, 3.6 million m2 of housing were built in the Moscow region. Of these, about 1.5 million square meters were put into operation in multi-storey buildings. m of housing, and the growth was 103.6% compared to 2007. Housing prices in the Moscow region in 2007-2008 grew at a faster pace than Moscow, but still remained affordable, and a significant part of the apartments were purchased by Muscovites and solvent people who moved to Moscow from other cities, but chose apartments not in the capital itself, but next to it. Thus, when selling apartments in one of the new microdistricts of the town of Vidnoe near Moscow, it was calculated that Muscovites bought more than 55% of the apartments.
When the 2008 crisis began, the Moscow region, in general, retained its attractiveness for home buyers. In the first half of 2009, the Moscow region became the leader among Russian regions in terms of housing construction volumes: according to Rosstat, during this period, 12% of the total area of housing built in the country was commissioned in the Moscow region. The rate of decline in demand for real estate near Moscow in the first half of 2009 was almost two times less than in Moscow. Despite the financial crisis, in 2009 (at the time of writing), a number of real estate market experts look at a surge in demand for residential real estate in the Moscow region as a very likely phenomenon. True, in this case it will be necessary to reduce prices for stuck cottage villages, and the most remote ones will suffer the most.
In world history, the flight of citizens (in peacetime) from large cities is not such a rare occurrence. Suffice it to recall the flight of wealthy Romans and their entourage from the largest cities of the Roman Empire - to nature, to luxurious villas. The cities themselves were filled with visiting migrant workers and traders from outside the Roman Empire - barbarian countries and regions of that time: Scandinavia, northern and eastern Germany, Arabia, Africa. The same trend can be seen today in many cities in Western Europe. Let's remember the popular joke: “Paris is the city where the French lived.” The tendency to escape from large cities into nature is characteristic of the civilizations of pre-Columbian America. Characteristic was the almost complete exodus of residents - both poor and rich - from problematic cities, followed by a transition to agriculture and hunting.
The dream of owning a home also appeared among Muscovites, and it began to take on very definite shapes: cozy houses surrounded by greenery, fresh air, flower beds, garden beds, or happy pets walking around the site - whoever liked what they liked best. Perhaps emotions also played a role: instead of a city with indifferent and unfamiliar neighbors, streets with hurrying passers-by without faces, there is a chance to settle in a cozy place where everyone knows each other, and where strangers do not enter. It is not without reason that many residents of villages and science cities that have been closed since Soviet times have regretted the opening of borders since the 90s... A boom in individual construction has begun in the Moscow region. It was built by Muscovites who could afford it, and by wealthy people from the regions. Of course, most of the Muscovites who started construction already owned land in the vicinity of Moscow, because when building a low-rise building in the Moscow region, it is the cost of land that constitutes the main cost item. For a Muscovite who has land in the near Moscow region, it turned out to be easier to build a three-story cottage with a garage, corresponding in layout and design solutions to luxury residential real estate, than to buy an economy-class three-room apartment in an ordinary Moscow “sleeping room.” The relocation of representatives of the “middle plus” class and wealthy Muscovites to the suburbs has not yet become widespread and is still seasonal. But the trade and service sector of the cities near Moscow is already beginning to flourish, thanks to the powerful flow of cottage inhabitants along with the entire household. Statistics do not yet take into account the growth of the summer population in the suburbs, but according to unofficial data, observations and retail sales statistics, in 2007 and 2008 the summer population in the Moscow region increased to 30% compared to 2005.
This wealthy and very desirable population for traders in the Moscow region is still forced to be torn between the city and a country house. But most people who have winter homes in the Moscow region, as well as many residents of the suburbs, are forced to work in the capital. They are forced to do so - if given the opportunity, many would choose to work in a specialty closer to home. And this would ultimately be beneficial if we take into account the costs of transport, the real loss of working time associated with poor health (not to mention stress, people who spend a long time on public transport are more at risk of infectious diseases). Therefore, we can already talk about significant latent demand for places of employment and for office, production, warehouse complexes and technology parks in the Moscow region.
Another factor preventing Muscovites from settling in the Moscow region is the lower level of educational institutions compared to Moscow. Some committed “cottage dwellers” take their children to schools on the way to work; they often choose schools located closer to the Moscow Ring Road. The supply of houses in cottage villages is quite extensive, but there are three serious restrictions on their development. The first is the lack of trade and social infrastructure in economy-class villages, the second is the low quality of projects and construction work. Not all potential buyers are aware of the third limitation: in many villages you have to shell out a very serious amount of money every month for maintenance (and if you still have to pay off the loan, it turns out quite sad...).
This is about “one-story Russia.” Those Muscovites who do not have access to their own country house make purchases in other categories of residential real estate - in town houses and apartment buildings. Muscovites who move to live in apartment buildings in the near Moscow region would like to maintain the same level of living comfort available to them in the capital. In some towns near Moscow this is quite possible. For example, Korolev, according to demanding Muscovites, is a very worthy and attractive city, it has a high proportion of intelligentsia, and living in it is even more pleasant than in some Moscow “dormitory” areas. And the neighboring city of Shchelkovo seems to some Muscovites to be workers, and therefore “rude” and “simple.” The lowest degree of infrastructure development among the cities near Moscow and the lowest comfort of living for Muscovites was noted in 2008 in Lyubertsy (in order not to offend the residents of these cities, we add that this is not our personal opinion, but the opinion of apartment buyers - agency employees told us about this for real estate).
Since some Muscovites change their place of residence, the question of where to work arises. More precisely, places to work, that is, square meters of office real estate. The existing demand in the Moscow office space market is also far from being fully satisfied, although the severity of the problem is several times less than in the residential real estate market. What would many executives of companies who are thinking about expanding their premises want? That's right, premises to own, for rent, ranging from 50 to 200 m2, and in each case, convenient conditions for employees and clients. When you don’t have to abandon your car, where there is a free space, and where a tow truck can pick it up, and walk 20 minutes to the point of labor application (like Masyanya in the famous St. Petersburg series: “I went further than I was…”). A prestigious central location turns out to be too inconvenient, so it is not surprising that recently some companies (including large and well-known ones) are moving their offices further from the Garden and 3rd Transport Rings. Back offices are also becoming widespread on the outskirts and in the Moscow region, where construction and rent are cheaper, and you can get much larger and more comfortable premises for the same money. Labor costs are also lower. Such a redistribution of jobs will invariably lead to a redistribution of leisure areas in the medium term - the positions of districts and cities near Moscow will strengthen, and attendance at the center will decrease.
In trade and retail real estate in the Moscow region, several areas of possible development of formats in the future can be identified:
- Saturation with small formats (convenience stores of various specializations, microdistrict and regional shopping centers) and development of infrastructure in multifunctional complexes in the Moscow region. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account two types of target groups of buyers: residents of the “one-story” Moscow region and multi-story residential areas. The desired lifestyle of a cottage inhabitant is to take the children to a kindergarten or school located nearby in the morning, spend the day at work, and in the evening make the necessary purchases and use services. New school institutions can be organized in such a way that classes will be held until the end of the working day. The infrastructure should include various types of entertainment and leisure that can be used by both parents and children. In order for families living in cottages to be able to lead such a lifestyle, it is necessary to improve the class of educational institutions for preschoolers and schoolchildren. In the future, branches of prestigious and promising creative development institutions, as well as universities, may be organized in the Moscow region - especially since many of them are now faced with a shortage of space in Moscow. Another group of consumers are families in high-rise buildings already living in the Moscow region, or Muscovites migrants attracted by the favorable housing offer near Moscow. Especially if residents of the Moscow region start working close to home, their time and spending on local catering, entertainment and services from beauty and health establishments will increase significantly. These two target groups require the presence in settlements of the Moscow region of goods and services of frequent and regular demand, which will be provided with stable sales. Despite the presence of wealthy buyers in the coverage area, it is more effective to target goods and services to the mass segment. A number of studies have shown that up to 80% of consumer goods consumed by wealthy households are purchased in hypermarkets, even discounters and markets. The owners themselves visit “medium+” supermarkets and delicatessen stores, but in addition to the owners, the family has a large staff of relatives and servants... Also, buyers from small towns in the Moscow region still think that everything is more fashionable and better in Moscow, and in their hometown There simply cannot be good products above the average price segment. There were cases when brands of clothing, shoes, and sporting goods in the middle price segment and “medium+” sold poorly in the Moscow region due to the fact that buyers believed that the goods simply could not be “real” in their province.
The relevance of projects of other, larger formats (supply facilities of the second and third levels of the cellular structure) depends on the general economic situation in the country. But many experts believe that the development of society occurs in a spiral, periods of growth and decline alternate, and after the next recession, development continues, moving to a new level. We think so too - otherwise we would not have written this book... If there are niches in the supply of a territory, then sooner or later developers and city authorities must return to the issue of filling them (of course, unless some significant shocks occur in the world that make it impossible continuation of the previous development path). Therefore, we will continue to list promising formats in the Moscow region:
- Creation of large retail facilities designed for automobile accessibility. First of all, we are talking about large supermarkets (super-store format) and hypermarkets. Muscovites and summer residents have already appreciated the convenience of purchasing in large stores located to the right of the Saturday morning flow into the region, on the radial highways of Moscow. But the closer to the place of summer residence, the more convenient it may be. With a low population density, very good automobile accessibility of shopping centers near Moscow can play a decisive role. It is worth additionally taking into account that in the event of an increase in the income of buyers, growing motorization and the development of construction technologies, the number of summer residents who visit holiday villages in winter will increase: they spend weekends and holidays there (now we can estimate the number of “winter summer residents” at only 10% of plot owners and dachas). Another argument in favor of opening hypermarkets in the Moscow region is a change in the composition of potential buyers, an increase in the proportion of people with average and high incomes (of course, if the region is interested in attracting wealthy residents and makes efforts to do this). But we can say with confidence that Moscow trade is not in danger of a complete departure of wealthy buyers to the Moscow region as long as Moscow remains the capital of Russia. The metropolitan function has a beneficial effect on retail trade in almost any country. This includes a large army of officials, people serving the functioning of government bodies, and numerous business travelers, representatives of foreign states and international companies, as well as regions. In the 20th century, there were five cities in the Russian Empire and the USSR that performed capital functions at different times. In addition to St. Petersburg and Moscow, the capital function was assumed by Rostov-on-Don (the capital of the South of Russia under General Denikin), Omsk (the capital of the supreme ruler of Russia, White Admiral Kolchak), and the temporary capital of the USSR - the city of Kuibyshev (Samara). Despite the fact that each of the temporary capitals spent no more than three years in this role, the population of each of these cities during that period grew tenfold, and trade developed unusually rapidly.
- Development of a new type of shopping and entertainment complexes combining trade, leisure and health and sports facilities. In the United States, the country's motorization made possible the mass relocation of the middle class to the suburbs and the development of large-format stores on the “green lawn.” Large shopping and shopping and entertainment centers of regional importance in the United States in the twentieth century were tied not to city centers, but to large highways and airports. This American experience turned out to be very successful and formed the basis for the latest shopping and entertainment mega-complexes of global importance. Projects of shopping, entertainment, sports, shopping, educational, historical, and even shopping and park centers (similar centers were created as an experiment in Brazil) require very significant territories, and the Moscow region has the required land resources. Now leisure and health facilities in the Moscow region are gaining popularity, but so far they have developed on the basis of houses and recreation centers, sanatoriums and boarding houses. In the future, it is quite possible to create complexes for seasonal recreation in areas adjacent to hypermarkets and shopping centers near Moscow: for example, for equestrian sports, skating and skiing, and outdoor games. Experts consider the most promising territory for this to be the Dmitrovsky district of the Moscow region, which is very picturesque and favorable from an environmental point of view.
- Activation of office, production and hotel functions in the Moscow region. The development of communication technologies and the Internet provide very favorable opportunities for the separation of client front and back offices. Therefore, we can assume that more and more companies will move closer to the Moscow Ring Road and to the suburbs: including those companies that will leave only representative, “pretentious” front offices in Moscow and will place the growing “support” staff in spacious premises with views of fields and birch trees . During the USSR, there were also “islands of advanced science” in the region, and now it is possible to develop technology parks - territories for the implementation of innovative projects, the development of new technologies and the location of high-tech industries. More than 15 projects (some very large-scale) for the construction of technology parks in the Moscow region have already been announced or are being implemented, and with government support, Russian and Western companies are investors. Changes may also affect hotel real estate. The shortage of hotels in Moscow and traffic congestion make it urgent to build hotels in business districts of the Moscow region, as well as hotels and apartments in offices near Moscow. A business hotel as part of an office or office-shopping center significantly strengthens connections with partners from other regions, as well as its own branches in them; the work of business travelers becomes much more productive due to time savings.
The creation of large facilities in the Moscow region - primarily office, multifunctional and industrial - is one of the possible solutions to the problem of transport congestion in the capital. The first ring of multifunctional centers can be created immediately outside the Moscow Ring Road, and new objects will divert part of the “pendulum” flow towards themselves (Fig. 2.37). The advantage of this scheme can already be observed in practice, since a complex called “Rumyantsevo Business Park” has been operating in Moscow for more than a year. It is located 500 meters from the Moscow Ring Road in a south-west direction, along the Kyiv highway. The development area was 18.5 hectares, and in total the multi-storey complex includes approximately 365,000 m2 of retail, office and warehouse space. Office residents appreciated the convenient parking for 7,000 cars and good accessibility by public transport by Moscow standards: buses and minibuses run from the Yugo-Zapadnaya metro station, as well as special shuttles to the business park. Office workers and clients can travel no further than to offices and warehouses located on the territory of Moscow industrial zones. In addition, the flow (on public transport and especially car flow) goes in the direction opposite to the main movement: in the morning, when everyone is rushing to the center, you can safely drive in the direction from the center, and in the evening - accordingly, vice versa (Fig. 2.37-A). For residents of cottages and apartment buildings in the nearest Moscow region, such a place of work is convenient, since they do not need to enter Moscow at all.
Multifunctional centers with offices between the “dormitory” areas of the city and within the areas are also capable of partially redistributing “pendulum” flows and changing their directions. Flows into the office center between districts will be perpendicular to the most massive flows along key radial highways of the city (Fig. 2.37-B). And Figure 2.37-B shows that part of the office center flows within the district will generally remain within its boundaries (only a part, since a situation where all residents of the district work in the same district could only be imagined in Soviet times).
The next stage of development could be the construction of a second ring of multifunctional complexes in the Moscow region - between the Moscow Ring Road and the Central Ring Road (Fig. 2.38). These complexes can be located between cities near Moscow in order to attract business representatives (tenants) and workers from several localities. Large shopping and shopping and entertainment complexes must also be equally accessible from several cities in order to have a sufficient number of buyers according to the classic Reilly formula. In Fig. Figure 2.39 shows a diagram of the Moscow region with a population of over half a million inhabitants, which is formed by the permanent population of cities and towns, residents of “one-story Russia”, that is, inhabitants of cottages, and the summer population - summer residents. In the case of creating a multifunctional center in an undeveloped area between populated sites, the demand for goods and services at all levels of the cellular structure could remain within the area, and not go to a large city.
We have already said that most cottage villages in the Moscow region have only first-level supply enterprises or no supply at all, and their residents are forced to continue to travel to Moscow. The only exceptions are a few elite villages with their own kindergarten, school, sports complex and even church. You can even find such a phenomenon of cottage construction as a strip 12 (!) kilometers long in the forest, along which plots are cut (photo). There are several such strips in the Moscow region, and they appear in places between populated areas. On the one hand, the inhabitant of each of the houses has his own exit to the forest and can enjoy communication with nature. But the obvious disadvantage is the long and boring journey to the nearest road, and the distance from any supply enterprises. If the house is located in the center of the village, even for cigarettes and beer you will have to travel more than 6 kilometers... It’s a completely different matter when the development of the territory is comprehensive, in which case the sales and rental prices for houses in the villages become more justified. Elite low-rise buildings may well develop together with multifunctional centers and technology parks, and peacefully coexist with cities near Moscow and extended dacha areas. The sectoral model of such a territory is shown in Figure 2.40. The difference between this structure and the Hoyt model is that the business, retail and leisure zone is planned for two small cities and can also serve an area of elite low-rise housing and temporary low-rise housing. In order for summer residents and cottage residents to gain the advantage of developed supplies close to home, but at the same time not lose the benefits of living in nature, low-rise areas are separated from the center of the agglomeration by forest and park areas.
We gave the example of the Moscow region in order to show how well-known models of urban development and transport schemes can be applied to a specific territory. How the Moscow region will develop in reality, and whether this area will be able to realize its potential, depends on several factors. The first is an understanding of the problems and opportunities not only by business representatives, but also by the authorities. And second, of course, is the ability to think on the scale of territory planning, and not just specific projects.
So, we have examined the main models that determine the development of cities and the needs of territories for retail space, as well as their possible practical application in the development of new areas. Now let's move on to specific practical tasks - to the methodology for conducting analysis and marketing research for new and existing retail facilities.
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